It’s that time again.  The new NBA season is upon us, and its time for some thoughts and predictions.

 Eastern Conference:

 Central Division: 

1. Cleveland Cavaliers:

Contrary to popular belief, the Cavs were the Eastern Conference Champions last season, unseating the Pistons in rather dominant fashion.  The rest of the East is hoping that LeBron was lucky last year, but history says that truly great players rarely take a step back.  LeBron is a truly great player.  Finishing first in the division may be a bit of a stretch, but the Cavs are my pick to win the Conference, so they’ll start the season right here. 

2. Chicago Bulls 

Putting the Bulls second is more an indictment of the Pistons, but the Bulls are a good team that will win around 50 games.  They have a good mix of unselfish players, but they don’t have any kind of post presence, and I don’t think that Luol Deng is ever going to be the elite player that some project.  I would feel better about this team’s future, but I’m sure that they’ll eventually abandon this “whole team” philosophy and trade for a
Kobe Bryant-type star, which will make them the Chicago Lakers.  And not in a good way. 

3. Detroit Pistons 

De-troit Basket-Ball is just about done, and I think the drop off this year is going to be precipitous.  Yes, they still have good players, but the Pistons were always a collection of individuals that were somehow able to put their own psychoses aside in the pursuit of a Championship.  They have been an elite team in the East for four seasons, but now there are a good number of teams with a better chance of winning the East.  When the chance for a title slips out of the picture, this team will fall apart, and fast.  If Dumars was smart, he’d look to move some of his pieces to keep things fresh.  But he decided to stay with his core, re-upping with Chauncey Billups this offseason.  That core includes Rasheed Wallace, and that’s going to be a problem. 

4. Milwaukee Bucks 

The Bucks were unlucky in the lottery, falling to the 6^th pick last year after compiling the league’s 3^rd-worst record.  Yes, maybe they deserved their fate after they tanked in the second half, but unlike their fellow tankers the Celtics, the league didn’t bail out the Bucks.  As such, the Bucks are a lot like the Raptors, a team full of good-not-great players that has never found its way to a superstar through the Draft, but rather has had to settle for the most reliable big man available (Yi in 07, Bogut in 06) while passing on more talented point guards and wing players.  It will be a year near .500, and the Bucks will have to wait and see if that will be enough to get them into the Playoffs. 

5. Indiana Pacers

This Pacers team is not good.  I’ve never been a Jim O’Brien fan, and he took a job where the players are a complete mismatch for his coaching style.  Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy just don’t have the talent to justify their salaries, and the Pacers have been a case study for how quickly a few bad characters can destroy a franchise.  My money says that O.J. Mayo will be drafted by Indianapolis next June.  Which will lead to yet another Pacers debacle when he refuses to play there.  Hey, at least they have the Pacemates. 

Atlantic Division: 

1. Boston Celtics 

Watching the Celtics play the Cavaliers in the preseason was eye-opening.  Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce might be the best combination of three superstars that the league has seen since Magic, Kareem and Worthy.  They are accomplished players in their own right, with little left to prove individually.  They are talented all-around players with high basketball IQs, and they do all the little things that are necessary to improve the team.  Garnett will push Allen and Pierce to be better, refusing to let them take a night off, and in turn Allen and Pierce will give Garnett enough support to let him show what a truly great player he is.  While Garnett has always played hard, I expect him to have a Randy Moss-esque resurgence.  He’s never had talent like this around him before, and he is in a perfect position to take advantage of it.  With all that being said, the rest of the supporting staff was on a team that only managed to win 24 games last year, and they are coached by Doc Rivers.  So I won’t hand them the East just yet.  Still, they’re really good. 

2. Toronto Raptors 

No one is giving the Raptors any love this year, and I can’t figure out why.  They were the best team in the Atlantic last year, even as a young team in its first year under a new coach.  This team should only get better in 07-08, with Bosh, Bargnani and Garbajosa creating a frontcourt that few teams should be able to handle defensively, while T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon keep the offense flowing.  Besides, they’re built like a European team, and we know how much trouble NBA players have with that kind of system. 

3.  New Jersey Nets 

The trio of Kidd, Carter and Jefferson is good enough to be a middle of the pack team, and will probably make the playoffs with a record around .500.  This team also should be better with the return of Nenad Krstic, giving them a post player that can pull opposing big men out of the lane, freeing up some room inside.  Still, the odds that the big three stay healthy all year are slim, and it’s amazing how little Carter and Jefferson compliment each other.  If they meet the Raptors again in the first round, the result will be different. 

4. Philadelphia 76ers 

I like the 76ers, but they just don’t have the talent to win very many games this year.  Andre Iguodala is becoming a good player, and Andre Miller will get the most out of his teammates, but there’s just not much to get.  Did you know that Kevin Ollie is on this team?  Yeah, they’re that good. 

5. New York Knicks 

I have to put the Knicks here, because I hate Isiah Thomas.  There’s not a single coach/general manager out there who would still have his job after all Thomas has been through, yet somehow a playoff season, even a sub-.500 playoff season, will be dubbed a success.  This is par for the course at MSG, and until Daddy Dolan steps in and kicks Baby Jim to the curb, nothing is going to change.  LeBron would leave Cleveland to go be a part of this? 

Southeast 

1. Orlando Magic 

Somehow the Magic finished below .500 last year.  Then they went and signed Rashard Lewis, bidding against themselves by letting the Sonics pull a sign-and-trade even when Lewis was an unrestricted free agent.  Yet despite all that, I think they’re going to be the best team in the Southwest this year.  Dwight Howard was a beast last year, averaging 17.6 ppg and 12.3 rpg, and all reports are that he’s even bigger and stronger this year.  Lewis should take some of the defensive focus off of Howard, making him even better, while Jameer Nelson gives them a distributor who will make sure that Lewis and Howard get the right number of touches.  Combine that with Stan Van Gundy’s return to coaching, and you have a team that should be very good. 

2. Miami Heat 

Dwyane Wade is a great player.  Shaquille O’Neal was a great player.  In order for the Heat to be competitive, Wade needs to be healthy, and Shaq needs to be motivated.  Wade is coming off knee and shoulder surgeries, and Shaq hasn’t been motivated since he proved he could win a title without Kobe Bryant.  Nevertheless, this is still a playoff team, and that should be enough to keep Pat Riley from retiring mid-season again. 

3. Atlanta Hawks 

That’s right, the Hawks.  Wanna fight about it?  Years of high draft picks have loaded this team with talent, and the Hawks drafted the most NBA-ready player in the Draft in Al Horford.  If they had a point guard, they might be ranked above the Heat.  Joe Johnson is just entering his prime, Josh Smith has finally grown into his talent, and the Hawks now have enough players to let high draft picks like Sheldon Williams become useful role players, rather than overwhelmed starters. 

4. Washington Wizards 

This is an all-offense, no defense team, and that’s not going to cut it this season.  Arenas was a standout last year, but I expect a big slide this season.  Arenas has always been motivated what he perceives as disrespect.  The problem is, Gilbert has been lauded non-stop for about a year now, and is already thinking ahead to the big pile of respect he’s looking to get on the free agent market next year.  He’s going to talk and talk, but so far he hasn’t won a damn thing, and eventually the league is going to realize that his mouth writes checks his body can’t cash. 

5. Charlotte Bobcats 

Too many injuries, including year-ending damage to Sean May and Adam Morrison.  There are some really interesting players on this roster, like Gerald Wallace, Jason Richardson, and Ray Felton, but there’s not enough talent given the injuries.  This team could make a leap next year, but for now, they’ll be lucky to win 25 games.