Playoff Prediction

by conneutcav on Aug 3, 2009 4:30 PM CDT Comment 36 comments

I am aware that we are still in free agent signings, but I want to know, what is the consensus playoff picture

Mine is the Following

1 Lakers 1 Celtics

8 Suns 8 Bulls

1 Lakers 1 Celtics

4 Mavs 4 Heat

5 Mavs 4 Heat

5 Trailblazers Winner: Celtics 5 Wizards

1 Lakers vs. 1 Celtics

3 Nuggets 3 Magic

6 Hornets 6 Hawks

3 Nuggets 3 Magic

2 Spurs 2 Cavs

7 Warriors 7 Pistons

Edit: After checking the comments and looking into it myself, i realise minnesota has next to no hope. I chose phoenix in its place. Also, I dont know what I was thinking with the Hornets over Mavs.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on FearTheSword.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff at FearTheSword

0 recs | Comment 36 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Interesting picks

You have the elites pretty well, but the rest is pretty wild. I mean, Minnesota as a 8th Seed? W-O-W. New Orleans over Portland? Detroit as a 5th seed? Egads.

Here’s a Western Conference Fan’s view:

1. Los Angeles (L)
2. San Antonio
3. Portland
4. Denver
5. Dallas
6. New Orleans
7. Utah
8. Los Angeles ©

Note: 2-5 will be very close, any of those teams could end up anywhere in that group. NO and Utah are the 2nd (or 3rd, depending on your view) tier teams in the West. Finally, the 8th seed is considered a tossup between LAC, Phoenix, Houston, Oklahoma City, Memphis, and maybe Golden State.

Minnesota and Sacramento are widely considered to be destined as the worst teams in the conference, with no chance of moving up (unlike say Memphis, GS or OKC, pending on talent).

1st Round
LAL over LAC
SA over UT
POR over NO
DAL over DEN

2nd Round
LAL over DAL
POR over SA

Conference Finals
LAL over POR

Eastern Conference:
1. Boston
2. Cleveland
3. Orlando
4. Atlanta
5. Washington
6. Miami
7. Chicago
8. Toronto

The lower tier of the East is a mess. Any number of things can happen. Washington, fully healthy, is a dangerous playoff contender. Miami could go up or down, depending on O’Neal and any deals they make. Toronto could likewise sink or fall, depending on trades and Bosh’s dedication to the team. Chicago is likely to lose a little without Gordon to bring that spark. Detroit might make it, but that team isn’t finished rebuilding it’s roster yet. Charlie V and Gordon aren’t enough to push them over. Indiana and Charlotte might also make some noise. And who know’s what to expect from Philly now, with Brand questionable and no more Miller to run the point.

Guaranteed not to be a challenge is New York, Milwaulkee, New Jersey.

"The problem actually is that PER is a extra-long, double high wagon load of horse crap." - timbo (7/3/09)

by tandur on Aug 4, 2009 2:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

oh yeah

Eastern Conference prediction:

1st Round
BOS over TOR
CLE over CHI
ORL over MIA
WAS over ATL

2nd Round
BOS over WAS
CLE over ORL

Conference Finals
CLE over BOS

NBA Finals
LAL over CLE

"The problem actually is that PER is a extra-long, double high wagon load of horse crap." - timbo (7/3/09)

by tandur on Aug 4, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i’m really fascinated by this groundswell of prognostication that has boston finishing ahead of the cavs (and orlando) this year. you are not the only one, by any means, but this was as good a place as any to talk about it.

i realize garnett was hurt at the end of the year last year, and getting him back will be an acquisition, of sorts, on its own. but is adding rasheed really that big, as kg returns from injury (a year older), allen ages, pierce ages, and rondo gets more stubborn? as well, they’re likely not to have BOTH big baby (FA) and leon powe (injury/FA), who were not small contributors last year.

compare that to the cavs, who brought in shaq, jamario moon and anthony parker, as well as the fact that they bring back the best player on the planet…who is only 24. doesn’t it stand to reason that LeBron will get even better this year? as opposed to most of the c’s big chips who are fighting off decline?

i guess my point is simply that i’m not sure how last year’s cavs team adds the pieces it did (at virtually zero expense), and is widely considered to be inferior to a celtics team that only brought rasheed as a shiny new toy.

i would place good money on the cavs finishing ahead of the celtics in the east in 09-10.

and this isn’t even to mention the defending conference champs.

by DontCallMeJoey on Aug 4, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

My thoughts exactly.

by Buckeye Brad on Aug 4, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Cavs should be an excellent regular season team this year, assuming pretty good health. They have more than enough options offensively and play great team defense.

by 7foot3 on Aug 5, 2009 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep.

Probably a case of “to be the man you gotta beat the man”.

by rufio on Aug 7, 2009 4:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Call me a homer, but I can’t picture a team that had the best record in the NBA, then got even BETTER, not winning the championship.

Anything less will not only be a major disappointment, but quite a surprise in my eyes.

2009 Prediction: Att - Yds - TD
Jerome Harrison 95 - 532 - 8

by Simmsinns on Aug 4, 2009 4:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Count a Laker fan as another of the people who just don't get...............

where all this groundswell of “Boston finishing first in the East” prognostications are coming from! Regardless of what happened last year, the Cavs are CLEARLY (in my opinion at least) the best team in the East and the only thing that stopped them from getting to the finals were bad match-ups (that have been fixed fairly well with the additions of Shaq, Moon and Anthony P coming off the bench) and an unbelievably hot Magic squad playing their best basketball of the season.

I’ve read a lot of talk from the Celtic sites that seem to suggest the addition of Rasheed Wallace makes them the championship favorites while they don’t take in to account the fact that my Lakers have the same championship winning roster as last season (getting better and more physical with Ron-Ron over Ariza), The Cavs have added several solid pieces (a few of which I’d love to have on the Laker’s roster to be perfectly honest) to go along with a team that got to the ECF and had the league’s best record last season as well as the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season (and the team that made it to the Finals), the Orlando Magic.

The way I see it, the C’s are going to have to work just to keep that 3 seed.

Much respect Cleveland. I already have my opinion of who we’re going to be battling in the Finals this year.

by Themanthemyththelegend on Aug 5, 2009 12:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

the Cavs are CLEARLY (in my opinion at least) the best team in the East

the only thing that stopped them from getting to the finals were bad match-ups

and an unbelievably hot Magic squad playing their best basketball of the season.

I almost agree entirely, and am also wondering how people have come to the Boston conclusions.
(I’m certain we disagree with the results of the finals though.)

Lastly, I don’t think Orlando will make it past the Cavs or the Celtics, and that replacing Hedo with a washed up Vince Carter is a downgrade.

2009 Prediction: Att - Yds - TD
Jerome Harrison 95 - 532 - 8

by Simmsinns on Aug 5, 2009 1:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but wait, did the cavs REALLY fix their problems? they got shaq, that’s ONE huge problem they fixed (d12). but what about the others?

1. lack of length/size against the big wings of orlando
2. unable to defend the pick and roll
3. the speed to both entrap inside the paint AND rush outside to defend the 3

how is shaq going to guard the faster and more athletic garnett? if they cannot defend the 3, how are they going to stop sheed from hitting from downtown?

while i like moon and parker, i dont know if inexperience will play a huge role in cleveland’s uphill battle this year.

i foresee more moves by the cavs, this team isnt finished yet. danny ferry knows their weaknesses now and he’ll probably bring in one or two more players before the deadline. this is why they were trying to get ariza and artest.

by inee on Aug 5, 2009 2:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

the addressed an awful lot of the issues that you enumerate here and that people put on them through the orl series. defending d12 1-on-1 (shaq); length/size (moon, parker); defending pick and roll (moon, parker, bringing back AV); and i don’t know what it means to have speed to both entrap in the paint and rush outside to defend the 3. i feel like the paint/3 point is negated by the ability to guard the post 1-on-1 (shaq). there won’t be as many double teams in the post, and then corresponding scrambles to defend the perimeter.

by DontCallMeJoey on Aug 5, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Varejao guards Garnett, and does so pretty well. And the Cavs had the best opponents 3pt% in the league last year, and should seemingly be able to keep more guys on the perimeter this year.

I’m not sure why everyone in the league is trying to pretend that some small sample sizes of perimeter shooting (Pietrus with a ~.700 TS%) is a big, proven hole in the Cavaliers. You don’t win 66 games and finish 3rd in defensive efficiency if you really can’t do those 3 things. Now did the Cavs’ defense perform poorly against the Magic? Yes, but to throw out the previous 90 games to just look at those 6 is foolish.

by 7foot3 on Aug 5, 2009 7:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now did the Cavs’ defense perform poorly against the Magic? Yes, but to throw out the previous 90 games to just look at those 6 is foolish.

Very well said. Unfortunately, sports reporting is all about making a bid deal about things that happen in a very small sample while completely neglecting the amount of random variation (aka “luck”) that naturally occurs over such samples. And most sports fans just follow along. As a stats teacher it makes me very upset, and sad that people aren’t more informed. I wish colleges would make every sports journalism major take one (or two) statistics course(s) so they can better inform the public.

by Buckeye Brad on Aug 5, 2009 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh boy

That’s your first problem. You’re looking at this from a “stat teacher’s” percpective. Fortunately in sports, it is not an equation. One situation is not the same as the next. Luck does not play as important a role as you state, especially in a 7 game series. Looking at it from a “stat teacher’s” perspective is going to cloud your judgement. Basketball is a fluid game, not a bunch of statistics and equations.

Here are some simple truths in basketball:

1) it’s all about the PLAYOFFS and championships! The regular season doesn’t meant much.
2) Sports has PEOPLE making DECISIONS. Anytime you put stat guys in control of fields which have PEOPLE making DECISIONS you end up with disasters. Just take a look at wall street where a bunch of stat guys made horrible decisions because they didn’t factor in PEOPLE making DECISIONS in the markets.

by plyka on Sep 1, 2009 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

what a brilliant and illuminating post. thank you for adding that rich perspective…

I reserve the right to complain about Gimenez at 1B and Carroll in the OF, no matter the facts. - FredOx

by DontCallMeJoey on Sep 2, 2009 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You obviously know nothing about statistics.

by Buckeye Brad on Sep 2, 2009 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh, and, i dont think the pistons will make the playoffs this year. that and that the wolves are a dream. i also dont think NO will beat the mavs (come on, they got okafor WTF). if the nuggets make a move or two before deadline, they could seriously challenge the lakers. the lakers had a tough time with them, matchup problems and all.

by inee on Aug 5, 2009 2:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

that might be true…the CAVS might not even reach the eastern finals this year if their couch will stil be CHOKE MIKE BROWN….hey brown…get out of Cleveland..please…let LBJ win one this time!!!

by Bobbit on Aug 6, 2009 7:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

brilliant

by DontCallMeJoey on Aug 6, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He’s right — the key to the Cavs winning the title is getting a new couch.

by Buckeye Brad on Aug 6, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the existing couch CANNOT stand

by DontCallMeJoey on Aug 6, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i vote leather!

by Manoovi on Aug 6, 2009 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotta go sectional with a pull out queen size bed, dual recliners, and arm rests that fold open to reveal cup holders.

by rufio on Aug 7, 2009 4:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

While Leather looks nice and all it’s not very comfortable…

by mgtbfb on Aug 7, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

you are so right. Thanks for adding to this.

All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist
Baseball’s biggest busts Andy Marte.

by E5 on Aug 6, 2009 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

playoffs?

west

1.san antonio
2.los angeles lakers
3.denver nuggets
4.dallas mavericks
5.new orleans hornets
6.portland trailblazers
7.utah jazz
8.los angeles clippers (dont hate me for that prediction)

east

1.cleveland cavaliers
2.boston celtics
3.orlando magic
4.detroit pistons
5.chicago bulls
6.philadelphia 76ers
7.miami heat
8.toronto raptors

"minds sharpens minds, like steel sharpens steel"

by NELLY808 on Aug 7, 2009 6:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

final 2?

cleveland will play san antonio for the 2010 nba championship

"minds sharpens minds, like steel sharpens steel"

by NELLY808 on Aug 7, 2009 6:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

lol i guarantee neither of those teams will be in the finals…. sa will have injury problems, and i dont think shaq is a good fit in cleveland

by robi s on Aug 7, 2009 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please explain who Shaq isn’t a good fit for Cleveland?

2009 Prediction: Att - Yds - TD
Jerome Harrison 95 - 532 - 8

by Simmsinns on Aug 7, 2009 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i say cavs over lakers in 7

by Indians95 on Aug 9, 2009 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

who will win?

cleveland cavaliers

"minds sharpens minds, like steel sharpens steel"

by NELLY808 on Aug 7, 2009 6:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i also predict

after next season, the nba will say goodbye to the sacramento kings, and possibly move them to seattle. i also predict that kevin durant will surpass wade in scoring.

"minds sharpens minds, like steel sharpens steel"

by NELLY808 on Aug 7, 2009 6:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs