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Around SBN: More Televised Winter Baseball, Please

My Guess...umm, Prediction...for Cleveland vs. Boston...and Yours

Well, I was a little off on my prediction (otherwise known as a wild guess) for the Chicago series:  I had Cleveland winning in six, and the Cavaliers spared us all a return to Chicago, although for a few nervous minutes in Game Five, I thought my guess might come to fruition.

Okay, okay, it was not so much a guess...I saw the Bulls as a pretty tough team for one that finished .500, and I took into account their much greater success this year when they were healthy, and in round one, that was evident as all of the games but one were close well into the fourth quarter, at least.

Now come the Celtics, and this series is hard to figure.  Not a little bit of it has to do with the condition of LeBron James's elbow.  LeBron has said that if need be he will drive more and shoot less from outside.  That sounds like a good plan to me...as long as when he is fouled, he is not doing a Phil Mickelson again and shooting from the port side.  LeBron may be ambidextrous, but there is a reason why he has always shot FTs right-handed, and I am guessing that the reason is:  He is better from the starboard side.

Star-divide

The Celtics put to rest, at least for now, the notion that they are "too old", and would "wear down" in the playoffs after struggling a bit in the second half of the season.  All the Celtics wore down, when all was said and done in the first round, were the wheels of the jet carrying the Heat as it landed back in Miami for the last time in 2009-10.

Boston, even if they do begin "wearing down" in the upcoming series, is a proud team, and expect them to bring that pride to the fray, as well as the collective self-assurance that comes from having won a championship just two seasons ago.  In other words, whether the Cavaliers are superior or not, the Celtics will not go quietly into that good night, and should Cleveland win, it will be a battle until the end.

The opening game, to me, is critical, and I am going to say right here that whoever wins the opener will win the series.  If Cleveland brings it in Game One, I see the Cavaliers winning.  If they are not ready, really ready, don't be shocked if Boston does what Orlando did last year and steals the home court advantage that the Cavaliers worked so hard for, and then all bets are off.

Without getting into match-ups, or into stats and trends - since I have a feeling emotion will mean much more in this series than numbers - I see the Cavaliers leading this series, by Game Six, three games to two.  And in Game Six, I see the Celtics simply refusing to lose on their home court, since so many will claim that their time has come and gone if they do. The mystic thing called "Celtic Pride" will conspire to make sure that Cleveland does not celebrate on the Celtics' floor.  Instead, I see the series going back to Cleveland, going the distance, and the Cavaliers emerging victorious in a Game Seven which will go down as a classic.

Okay, that is probably several hundred more words than were necessary, and maybe several hundred more than you cared to read.  Now I will exit the stage and give the microphone to you:  Who will win this series, and in how many games?  And if you care to share, why do you think so?

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You want a cookie? This isn’t 4chan, no one cares who posts first.

"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay

by Turkmenbashi on May 1, 2010 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

Its probably unwise to mention the hole in the internet on this blog. We don’t need legions of Anons invading… What we need are solid wins against Boston!

by IBHMC on May 1, 2010 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

LOL@Turk response

WIN!

"Just to remind you, Orlando made it to the finals last year without this guy. Crazy."~John Krolik

by BS Patrol on May 1, 2010 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

No match for us.

I got Cleveland in 5. We’ll win the 1st 2 games and then go to Boston and split. Come home and end it in 5. Boston is ok but Cavs are tooooooo good.

by Jaythetruth on Apr 30, 2010 7:23 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm a celtics fan and NOT here to troll

I think the series will go to at least 6 games, possibly 7. The regular season series was split no matter how you look at it, its a cold hard fact. Rondo is going to really pick up his game now that hes rested and completely healthy. The big 3 play some of their best ball in the playoffs. Ray Allen has got it going. (this is crazy but…) Sheed might actually bend his knees! So the celtics have a chance I wouldn’t count them off quite yet, just don’t be suprised when the series goes to 7 games and its not a cakewalk for the cavs

by mm mm toasty on Apr 30, 2010 11:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don’t think anyone around these parts expects anything even remotely resembling a cakewalk.

buuuuuh! --mooncamping

by johnnyphoenix on May 1, 2010 12:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks for your contribution, mm mm toasty.

by AncientMariner on May 1, 2010 5:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

I count the regular series as being 2-1. you have to take everything the cavs do in the first 4 games of the season with a grain of salt. under mike brown they have been a 50 win team every year but one, but are 9-11 in the first 4 games, including some bad losses to some bad teams. I wouldn’t go purely by the season series b/c that game doesn’t have a ton of meaning to it.

I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.

by bross09 on May 1, 2010 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Tough, both teams faced spunky playoff teams but nothing to prepared them for the second round. This is going to be a very angry and blood drenched series.

Cleveland in 5. Much respect to Boston but the talent on Cleveland is too much for a very old team, especially when the once feared warrior Kevin Garnett looks to be about 60 percent of the monster he usually is.

by SpursGerbil on Apr 30, 2010 9:00 PM CDT reply actions  

Good writer, you are

I like how you used a ship’s orientation in a basketball setting to tie it up with your name. Good job, old fart sailor who despises sleeping on the concrete of his balcony.

I must say, I have to agree with you. Cleveland in 6, most likely 7. Nothing like proven vets out to show the world their 15 minutes isn’t up. But they should be wary of the 6’10, 260 lb. elephant in the room/arena. And we all know, an elephant never forgets (1. KG was flapping his gums at the end of the last regular season meeting. 2. I would have gone with a 6’10, 250 lb. great white shark, or bull, but I don’t know if they are as mentally gifted as an elephant, but I friggin’ digress.)

O Hai Thar!

by Lex L. on Apr 30, 2010 9:37 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks, Lex, I appreciate that. And thankfully, no sleeping on the balcony seems imminent, the Mrs. is into these games as much as I am.

by AncientMariner on May 1, 2010 5:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

I was right on my last prediction (i.e., 5 games) and

therefore I hope I am right again. I say 6 games. Cavs will win it in the Garden. Boom!

by ilamuku on May 1, 2010 5:20 AM CDT reply actions  

I really like how you write your articles here in FTS

Well i really do wish for a thriller game 7.. but im guessing Cavs in 6??

we don't light the stars, we simply fade with them..

by silenthero07 on May 1, 2010 5:50 AM CDT reply actions  

That was a really nice thing to say…thanks.

by AncientMariner on May 1, 2010 5:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

Match -ups

Hate to keep coming back to play off basketball but the match-ups are pretty intriguing.
Rondo?- We have no one to match his speed. Help defense is the only answer. If the series is close rondo is the reason.

KG?- I like Jamison on the defense for this one.

Perkins? Shaq/ Varejao? It is difficult to keep Perkins out of the paint but Shaq is to big for him.

Allen? I expect Ray to step it up but Parker’s defense has been excellent on him all year.

Pierce? LBJ? Pierce did not play well vs. Miami. This is the match-up that puts the Cavs over the top in 6.

"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?"
Joe Kapp

by lifelongvike on May 1, 2010 7:27 AM CDT reply actions  

Just like Mayweather will beat Mosley, the Cavs will beat Boston in 5 or 6. It won’t be easy but i just believe we have too much talent.

by CavsLebronFan on May 1, 2010 8:21 AM CDT reply actions  

Energy

Cavs have it. Celtics not so much. Pound them down low when Shaq is in the game and run their asses off by going small when he is not. Cavs in 5 or 6

I'm Polish...what's your excuse?

by Juannieboy on May 1, 2010 10:33 AM CDT reply actions  

For my heart’s sake, I pray to the basketball gods this doesn’t go seven games. I get far too worked up to survive that.

Realistically, I can’t see this series going any fewer than six games. Ray Allen is going to absolutely murder us at least on game. My best guess is that Boston will take one in Cleveland, most likely tonight. We’ll all panic. But we’ll take games 2 and 3, drop 4 in Boston, then take 5 and 6. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the series go exactly as it did in ’08, with the home team winning every game and the series going all 7.

"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay

by Turkmenbashi on May 1, 2010 11:00 AM CDT reply actions  

Opinions

Just popping over from CelticsBlog and have to say this was a great read, love the respect and dignity your giving the Celtics in your writing. Anyway here’s my opinion on the second round series this year between the Cetlics and the Cavaliers. The fan in me says Celtics will take this in 7 Games. The analyst in me says the Cavaliers will take this in 6. But for now, I’ll keep the faith and say Celtics in 7 because I think the majority of the match ups favor us.

Match Ups:

1. Rondo/Mo Williams
Rondo and Mo is a match up that favors us. Rondo can blow by Mo on offense and draw help side defense and then pass out or alternatively just finish at the rim. But defensively Rondo needs to play conservative defense: sticking close, but not gambling. Mo flourishes when playing against a non-prudent defender. A crucial part of this match up is insuring Rondo plays 48 minutes (or more) of efficient and concentrated basketball; he has proved this is an issue many times in the regular season. Advantage goes to the Celtics.

2. Ray Allen/Anthony Parker, Delonte West
If Ray Allen can handle Dwyane Wade, I suspect Ray Allen can get going against AP and Delonte. I think one of the big factor of the series for the Celtics will be Ray Allen and his shot. If Jesus has his touches and they fall. Celtics will win that game, if he doesn’t – granted someone else doesn’t step up in a big way – Celtics will fall. To begin the season Ray’s shot was not falling, but since the All Star break and trade deadline, Ray’s shots and percentages have improved drastically. 51 Games before the All-Star game Ray had a 3 pointer shooting percentage of 33.8% and 45% field goal percentage while averaging 16 ppg. Post All-star game he shot 44.2 percent from 3 point land and 57.7 percent field goal percentage. If he can maintain his shot and Doc gives him his looks Celtics have the advantage.

3. Paul Pierce/ Lebron James
Bad. Bad. Bad. This is not my favorite match up. While PP seems to be getting a little more spring in his step, speed as well as lateral agility in the post-season Mr. Pierce can not handle Lebron James. No one can stop Lebron James. He can try and slow him down and hack Lebron and hope his free throw touch is off. But the key to this match up is making sure the rest of the Cavs do not get their touches and shut them down. As we saw in the first round; one superstar cannot win a series. And offensively in terms of Pierce… Let’s not talk about that. Advantage goes to the Cavaliers.

4. Kevin Garnett/Antawn Jamison
KG and Antawn is a decent match up. Both have a similar skill set in terms of their range and ability to stretch defense. KG will be another exponentially important factor in this series. In my humble opinion if KG is not his dominant self. Celtics cannot win this series. KG has some of his lateral quickness, ferocity and power back – but not all of it – he still seems a little hesitant at times; settling for layups instead of dunks, passing up on blocking shots. Defensively KG can shut Antawn Jamison down. KG is still a very, very good post and help side defender. Advantage goes to the Celtics

5. Kendrick Perkins/Shaquille O’Neil
I truly hope that Perk does not get Shaq in foul trouble because the Cavaliers dominate the Celtics with Varejao and Hickson on the floor. Shaq will be detrimental to the Cavs in this series. Perk has enough of a body to slow Shaq down, offensively we need to see Perk throw up less bricks and allow the game to come more fluidly to him instead of forcing shots. Shaq slows the Cavs down enough so that the Celtics can handle them. Not to say we can’t win with Varejao and Hickson on the floor – Big Baby can counteract their energy to an extent – but it will be more difficult then with Shaq on the floor. Advantage is tied.

I’m not going to go into the Bench right now as this post is long enough, but to add few quick comments about it. If Sheed can step up in a big way. We’ve won the series :-) wishful thinking. I know.

In conclusion: if all the nuances required for success are met, then the Celtics will win. But I find myself doubting these C’s on more than one occasion. Good luck. And I know this will be one good series rest assured

"Too much coffee. Too much coffee and Gatorade. It's a hell of a mix. If you're ever tired in the morning, just try that mix, and tell me what you think."
- Kevin Garnett

by Celtics_Green on May 1, 2010 11:09 AM CDT reply actions  

This is a pretty good breakdown. Appreciate you coming over to contribute a nice opposing-side analysis to the discourse. The only thing I take issue with is the KG/Jamison matchup. I think this is gonna be a breakout series for ‘Tawn. His numbers are up across the board in the playoffs, and he can stretch the floor in a way I don’t think KG can keep up with for four quarter. If I’m right, the Cavs take the series. If you’re right, the Celtics have it. I really think this series is gonna come down to Jamison. Here’s where he can become a True Cavalier ©.

"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay

by Turkmenbashi on May 1, 2010 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree. This series may end up coming down to KG and Antawn. But if KG can get anywhere near the kind of fire and lift that he showed in the ‘08 and ’09 season as well as his time in Minnesota and ’Tawn thinks he can stop that. He has another thing coming. But remember Antawn and KG are both in their early 30’s – in fact I think they are the same age – so it comes down to which one of the is more prepared to fight. And essentially more prepared to win. Also Sheed plays relatively the same role as Antawn; a stretch 4 so he may become a factor in this series.

"Too much coffee. Too much coffee and Gatorade. It's a hell of a mix. If you're ever tired in the morning, just try that mix, and tell me what you think."
- Kevin Garnett

by Celtics_Green on May 1, 2010 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

Hi Celtics_Green, I appreciate what you had to say about my column, and your analysis is also appreciated. I always try to give credit where credit is due, in the same way that I thought that Chicago played a good series against us and had no problem saying so, and only when someone like Joakim Noah comes out and directly insults our town do I feel the need to give a hard time to an opponent. If an opponent is derided and insulted constantly, it makes a triumph over them seem hollow: Understanding and respecting the legacy of the Celtics is something that a true NBA fan will do.

by AncientMariner on May 1, 2010 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

Very good post but a bit of wishful thinking. Don’t discredit the D of Delonte and Anthony Parker. They are excellent defensive players and as a pure on the ball defender, i think Delonte may be a bit better, but Wade is still good.

I see the PF battle between KG and Jamison to be even. KG plays good defense, but Jamison’s strength is stretching the floor and athleticism. although KG is a little quicker than earlier in the year, I just don’t feel he has the quickness anymore to guard Jamison if he drives. Jamison also can bring KG to the perimeter and draw him away from the post. this makes the Celtics even less effective at rebounding and interior D.

O NEal has the edge over perkins.

I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.

by bross09 on May 1, 2010 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

CelticsBlog Poll

Hi guys, also from CelticsBlog, also here to talk basketball and not trashtalk. Interesting poll going on at CB, wanted to see what you guys thought of it. Question is “Which Cavs player – not named Lebron – concerns you the most?” Results as of now:

Varejao 45 (60%)
Jamison 14 (19%)
M Williams 9 (12%)
West 4 (5%)
Hickson 2 (3%)
Parker 1 (1%)
Shaq 0 (0%)

Pretty clear consensus here – what do you think of these results? Who on the Celtics concerns you the most as a Cavs fan?

Can’t wait for Game 1 tonight – I’d wish you guys good luck but you know I wouldn’t mean it ;-) So I’ll just say I hope we get to see the amazing series we all know is very possible.

by thatmarvelousape on May 1, 2010 12:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Ray Allen. Scares the hell out of me.

"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay

by Turkmenbashi on May 1, 2010 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I second that motion, Ray Allen is my choice for Celtic that concerns me most.

by AncientMariner on May 1, 2010 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would say rondo for the celtics….I’m very surprised Varajao took the top spot, although I believe it’s the right call, so kudos to you guys for knowing your shit.

buuuuuh! --mooncamping

by johnnyphoenix on May 1, 2010 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think delonte west has to play a pivotal role, as well as Varajao, for the Cavs to be successful too.

buuuuuh! --mooncamping

by johnnyphoenix on May 1, 2010 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, and it’s kinda surprising how NOT surprising it is that Shaq didn’t get a single vote.

by thatmarvelousape on May 1, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Another C-bloger here to say hi. Enjoyed the article AM-good read. Tonights game has me nervous as hell, as I see this as the Championship.

by angryguy77 on May 1, 2010 12:56 PM CDT reply actions  

Championship? You mean of the EC or the whole NBA? Either way…I don’t see it at all as the championship, by any means. Most definitely the Lakers and Magic would wholeheartedly disagree as well…although this looks to be a great series.

buuuuuh! --mooncamping

by johnnyphoenix on May 1, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hi to you as well, angryguy, and thanks!

by AncientMariner on May 1, 2010 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

I love reading this guys post.

Most interesting and well written all the time.

He is an asset to this glorious blog.

Cavs in 7

"Just to remind you, Orlando made it to the finals last year without this guy. Crazy."~John Krolik

by BS Patrol on May 1, 2010 4:10 PM CDT reply actions  

I know this is late since the series already started (with a Cavs win yay!) but my prediction was/is Cavs in 6, and I only think one game turns into a blowout (+15) in our favor … maybe Game 5 here at home. The rest will be hard fought games.

by talonk on May 1, 2010 11:48 PM CDT reply actions  

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