Draft odds and the LAC pick

by Spidey on Apr 15, 2011 9:33 AM CDT

please help on the draft and the potential choices for the Cavs given that the team has LAC's pick

This is something that confuses me: everywhere I read that the Cavs have a 20% chance of getting the first pick (technically, it's 19.9% as the second worst team. But what ahoy the 2.9% chance that the Clippers' lottery pick ends up with the #1 selection? Didn't Cleveland get that pick too? Therefore, the odds are closer to 23%? Am I missing something from the trade or draft lottery rules?

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They don’t combine the odds for the two picks. Each pick is considered individual.

And those odds are not just for the #1 pick, they are for one of the first 3 picks.

by talonk on Apr 15, 2011 9:51 AM CDT reply actions

Wikipedia has the details for the odds
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NBA_Draft

It looks like the LAC pick has a 2.9% chance of getting the #1 pick. It increases to 3.3 for picks 2&3, then picks 4 thru

If my math is right, the odds of getting a top-3 pick is around 65% for Cleveland. The Clippers have a 10% chance of getting it’s pick in the top-3 (Cleveland is ~55%).

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin

by Spidey on Apr 15, 2011 5:15 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Picks 4-7, the Clippers don’t have a shot.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin

by Spidey on Apr 15, 2011 5:15 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

I would think the worst the cavs can get with their pick is 5, where as the clips pick has 7 choices (1-3 or 8-11). I am sure this is the season where Cleveland gets shut out of the lottery and teams 9-13 get the tops 3 picks. In that scenario, we would have #5 and #11.

Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic. - Robert S. Wieder

by jerseywahoo on Apr 18, 2011 12:34 PM CDT reply actions

BTW- Draft had us taking Irving and Kemba Walker… wait what?!

Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic. - Robert S. Wieder

by jerseywahoo on Apr 18, 2011 12:36 PM CDT reply actions

We are not taking two PGs...

Horrible idea. If we do get the #11 pick, then take Kawhi Leonard. We need a standout 3 on the floor. Eyenga is okay off the bench, but not to start.

by Tiny iZ Boss on Apr 19, 2011 5:38 AM CDT up reply actions

I don’t think it’s ideal to draft two point guards either, but I’ve never been a huge proponent of drafting for positional needs anyway. We need to draft Kyrie Irving, in my opinion, as he seems to be the most talented player in this draft class. However, I don’t think Kemba should be our first option with the Clippers pick. Somebody already mentioned Kawhi Leonard, and yes, we do need talent at the three, but if he’s still available, i think Alec Burks is the better choice. He’s listed as a PG, but measures 6’6" and is a really promising player that could definitely play SG. With Parker getting old, and Gibson being undersized and streaky, a player with his size and talent could be very useful.

by Unbiased_Truth on Apr 23, 2011 8:43 PM CDT reply actions

Hey there!

Omaha Sun told me about you. Welcome to SBNation and Fear the Sword! Although there isn’t much activity on this blog right now, trust me, there are plenty of Cavs fans on SBNation. I’m one of them, and I’m watching the playoffs right now. You can usually find me on Silver Screen and Roll; that’s the Laker blog, and it is ALWAYS bustling with activity, trust me. Or, if you’re lucky, you might run into NewCavsfan. Once in a while he goes on SSR, but more often he can be found on Clips Nation. He likes to visit different blogs as much as me. Anyway, I hope to catch you later!

THE CAVS SHALL RISE AGAIN...

by WaveOcean on Apr 24, 2011 2:59 AM CDT up reply actions

Hello

Yeah, he told me if I happened to see you on here to say hi on his behalf. Good to hear there’s a fairly solid fanbase on the blog. I’m not gonna lie, I was a bit concerned when I first came on; didn’t look like the fanposts had been touched in days.
Anyway, I’ll check out that blog as well. Omaha said to check out Bright Side of the Sun as well, so I joined that blog if there’s ever a lack of activity here. Thanks for the welcome!

by Unbiased_Truth on Apr 24, 2011 9:32 PM CDT reply actions