Are The Cavs Contending For A Playoff Spot?
by johnf34 on Jan 16, 2012 9:00 AM CST
in Fear My Opinion
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With the ugliness at the bottom of the current Eastern Conference it's time to admit something nobody (including me) wants to hear yet. The 2011-2012 Cleveland Cavaliers are playoff contenders if this roster stays together for the entire season. Pull the plug on this idea should Antawn Jamison or Anderson Varejao get traded or a major player goes down, but for the time being they're absolutely in the mix.
I want the Cavs to lose a lot of games this year. It's simply obvious that it's best for the future of the franchise. It's not like I want them to lose with this team currently getting the burn. I want them to play Tristan Thompson 30 minutes a night over Jamison and unfortunately at this point that means we'd lose more. So indirectly, I want us to lose because it would happen. I'm also rooting for Varejao to get traded and in an odd way that means I want us to lose because that move too (assuming it brought back primarily a draft pick) would cause more losing.
It's the eye for the future and the Kyrie Irving days ahead that brings forth this mindset. But in the present day there is no doubt this team is a contender for the 8th playoff spot but not a single place higher.
Let's check out how this is possible after the jump.
There are 15 teams in the Eastern Conference and squinting through my Wine and Gold tinted glasses I'd absolutely take Cleveland to best the Toronto Raptors, New Jersey Nets, Milwaukee Bucks, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Bobcats and Washington Wizards in the standings come season's end.
Thus, there are just 8 other teams who Byron Scott's Cavs are fighting with for the final playoff positions.
Philadelphia has played some stunning hoops to start out the season. I think from what they've shown this year (Spencer Hawes I'm looking at you) I expect them to still make the postseason easily.
New York is going to be full of drama and Mike D'Antoni rumors for the duration of the season but they've still got enough talent, especially when Boom Dizzle comes back, to earn a berth.
Boston looks pretty rough so far. They never were much more than an average offensive team combined with ferocious defense in their peak days. But now they are below average defensively and aren't scoring better than the past. This is going to be more of a struggle for them than most realized. But, they should have enough.
Chicago is a lock for a playoff spot.
Indiana barely slipped by the Cavs in their early season matchup. They've got more tools than Cleveland but they aren't guaranteed to find a way in.
Miami is a lock for a playoff spot.
Orlando will be in should Dwight Howard stick around, although they won't go far. But if he's gone they potentially could fall quite a bit. Anyways, it's tough to see them dropping.
Atlanta just lost their best player for 3-4 months which is a devastating blow. They missed a big opportunity to beat the Heat without LeBron James and Dwyane Wade recently but they've played well other than that. We all know they're not a threat once in but they were pretty much a lock if Horford and Co. didn't get hurt.
Most of the teams in this group have some flaws and while it looks crazy to see the Cavaliers sneaking in to claim the 8th and final seed something catastrophic could happen to any of the other teams which could cause them to slip out.
It's not 50/50 at all and I wouldn't come close to betting on it but if I had to pick somebody to keep up with the teams I just listed and battle for the 8th/9th spot it would definitely be Cleveland.
In the NBA system it's not necessarily a good thing to be the best of the worst so I hope Scott gets some of his vets out of town and the team slips down a bit because they truly do need another pick or we'll end up soon enough in that 36-46 (or equivalent) muck which is no fun.
Who do you think has the best chance of putting up a fight for the right to play the Miami Heat in April?
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I agree with what you said, but I don't see a team in contention for a playoff spot around the deadline trading veterans away.
It’s a GM type of move to be a buyer in that situation, actually. That means mortgaging future picks for an above average veteran with an albatross of a contract. That’s just the way it goes- everyone wants to “win now” and they’ll disregard the future to do it.
Cincy Jungle: Where the Rocky Mountains are in the Pacific Ocean
good article but,NEW JERSEY should be better than us when BROOK"S LOPEZcome back.and maybe the BUCKS are better than us so i do not think we will make the playoffs this year.
You can’t just say when Brook Lopez comes back. He’s going to miss like 6 more weeks which is going to really but them in a hole. Plus, he’s one of the most overrated players in the NBA. They may win a few more games than us when he does get back but don’t forget about how bad they’ll be when he’s gone.
Are the Cavs contenders
I joined this blog because I am pretty much out of the loop regarding the Cavs since James left Cleveland. You know another hard luck story for the late night talkers to pick at. I keep my eye on them but that is it. I have to say by just watching the scores, I am curious as to what happened so quickly? MatthewH has given a nice assessment which will help me get back into the team. I love our owner, and I felt very sorry for him following the James move, but Byron Scott staying and openly defending Gilbert was impressive to me. Now I would just love to see him get the last laugh on LeBron.
As to the writer of the blog I can understand his thoughts on continuing to get high draft picks, and I am not one to advocate for a bunch of veterans pushed together to keep the team at least in the mix, but this does not appear to be the case. Just to show how behind, I am pretty impressed with Kyrie but I can also tell from some of the stories that no one should be shocked at how good he has been at the start of the season. I think my point will be that it may not be a bad thing to have a nice mixture or balance while we try to get younger too. I am not thinking Jamieson long term, but Varejo is a crowd favorite. I say lets see where this can take us to start with before we judge what the team should do next.
First of all, welcome. Second, I think that our record is basically fools gold. There’s a difference between contender for a 7th or 8th seed and ACTUALLY contending. Being mediocre is no good. I think this team is another high draft pick away from having the core in place that we want to move forward with. I think we ultimately fall back to earth once the schedule gets harder and the rookies hit the inevitable “rookie wall”. I have no problem trading the veteran players for young assets to move forward with
FearTheSword, SBNation's Cleveland Cavaliers blog
by Conrad Kaczmarek on Jan 16, 2012 11:42 AM CST up reply actions
Thank you Conrad for the welcome! After checking, you certainly make a good point about the teams we are beating. I hate to sound flighty for sure but you all are making some good points for me to chew on. And I certainly agree that just making the 7th or 8th seed is more like for young teams or a mixture of not quite good enough veterans. I do not want that either. Although I think it is good for a young team to squeek by maybe in the natural progression of things to get some experience in the playoffs. I don’t believe that we are at that point of making the playoffs for experience overall as a “young team”. I mean we do have some veterans on this team. So yes, you guys are making me “see” that there is some work to do! I am going to have to start studying the college rosters too :) I am holding hope that we are at least heading in the right direction with key decisions to make.
Another view
It’s obviously about the future with the Cavs, but this season could be a pleasant surprise. But it’s not about whether or not they make the playoffs or have a bad record, in my view. Jamison is really the key, in so many ways. They need to play him 30+ minutes a night, and he needs to play well. So well that someone will give us a #1 pick before the deadline.
I get building via the draft, but that’s really hard to do. OKC has done it, but who else? Everyone else I can think of got on the map with the draft, and then some stars or at least very good supporting players wanted to get on board. With Kyrie, we are on the map. And I think Varejao is the type of player that people want to play with – so getting rid of him, unless it’s a lotto pick, is a no-no to me.
Congrats to the Cavs for being a real team this year after last year’s pain. Makes it fun to be a fan, whether or not they make the playoffs.
by curiousgeorge_27 on Jan 16, 2012 10:31 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Another view
Very well put Curious. Your post sounds better than the way I was trying to say it. By no means do I feel we shouldn’t play enough or just get rid of Jamieson. Especially if in your scenario he could bring us a lottery pick. He seems to be playing well enough to log the minutes and we know he can score. I agree that would be a good option to follow while he is helping us play more competitively this season. It is good for the fans I agree and it would also be good for the future if we could get a lottery pick. A win-win I guess.
Ultimately I believe the teams that we are better than are: New Jersey, Washington, Charlotte, Detroit.
FearTheSword, SBNation's Cleveland Cavaliers blog
by Conrad Kaczmarek on Jan 16, 2012 11:46 AM CST reply actions
Washington no way. Give me the argument please. The others you can at least argue and debate with Cleveland but I’d take us as currently constructed slightly over those three.
Wait what?
FearTheSword, SBNation's Cleveland Cavaliers blog
by Conrad Kaczmarek on Jan 16, 2012 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
Check out the teams that we have beaten: Detroit, Charlotte, Phoenix, New Jersey, Minnesota….meh.
FearTheSword, SBNation's Cleveland Cavaliers blog
by Conrad Kaczmarek on Jan 16, 2012 11:50 AM CST reply actions
I hope we do make the playoffs. All 16 teams have the same shot at advancing to the finals once they make it.
Ohio's premier Russian fan.
That’s true in baseball. In basketball? Not even close.
Cincy Jungle: Where the Rocky Mountains are in the Pacific Ocean
It’s true anywhere. The underdog can win.
Ohio's premier Russian fan.
by Heavysoviet on Jan 16, 2012 4:47 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
You dug your own grave in that comment by saying “the same shot.” That’s just simply not even close to true. Everyone has a “shot” I guess but it’s not even close to (your words) “the same shot.”
I agree with you John. I kept looking at both his statements and one said the same shot, and the other the underdog can win. IMO they are completely different statements. Not that I would even agree with saying it that way in say an example of the NCAA Tournaments where you lose 1 game and you are done. In the NBA however, teams have to win best of 7 series. My point is that I am sure I have read somewhere that over a 7 game series, it is a more true measure that the winner is the better team. In that regard, I would say that an 8th seed does not have “the same shot” as a #1 seed to get to the finals.
All I’m saying is that say we make the 8th seed and play someone like the Heat, the odds are not in favor for us but it doesn’t mean we will lose. We can win. Anyone could. Playoffs are a completely different ballgame.
Ohio's premier Russian fan.
by Heavysoviet on Jan 16, 2012 7:42 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I guess what I am trying to help point out is the fact that part of this discussion has to do with how far do you think we can go if we did make the playoffs? So far, I would have to agree that as things stand, we would be lucky to make the 8th and final spot. Which is good don’t get me wrong. And I would agree with you that there are upsets, but to make it to the finals is a completely different argument as you would have to have more than 1 upset to get there. I could probably say with a greater than 95% certainty that we wouldn’t get there. As opposed to not making it and maybe getting a lottery pick for the future which we seem to be in agreement that is what its all about for the Cavs at this point.
Having lottery picks are great, don’t get me wrong. But there’s nothing wrong with wanting the Cavs to make the playoffs. I would love it if they did. I can’t purposely wish for them to lose so we can have a better draft choice.
Ohio's premier Russian fan.
by Heavysoviet on Jan 16, 2012 8:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
(lol) I agree 100% with you. I won’t be rooting for the Cavs to lose either. The discussion is about IF it looks like at some point during the season we are not good enough to make that 8th spot; what to do?
We’ll be professional and give it 100% each game.
Ohio's premier Russian fan.
by Heavysoviet on Jan 16, 2012 10:25 PM CST up reply actions
Yes I agree. I just started posting here yesterday, and what I was trying to find out was if I was starting to see something that was worth getting excited about. After listening to everybody I can now come to the conclussion that at this point, I can see vast improvement in the Cavs, and it appears the players are responding to Scott and giving 100% like you say. That is all one can ask for. But how things will play out, I have decided after studying the rosters a bit that 1) even though Hortford is gone 3-4 months, I don’t look for them to come out of the final 8 2) Indiana is a puzzle because they were below 500 last year but seem to be winning against some good teams; will they drop? I wouldn’t hold my breath, but for me that is the only way we get the 8th spot in the end. Boston is old but they have too much talent and unless a couple injuries hit at the wrong time, I cannot see them losing enough to not be in the final 8. Thus realistically I will say that I do not think the Cavs will make it. In addition, someone brought up the wall for rookies and I cannot see us winning at a 500 clip if Irving loses any part of his edge. He has been contributing too much for us not to be able to depend on him all season.
I’m curious to see ifnwe will getbany offers for Jamison.
Ohio's premier Russian fan.
by Heavysoviet on Jan 16, 2012 10:26 PM CST up reply actions
Apologies for the errors there.
Ohio's premier Russian fan.
by Heavysoviet on Jan 16, 2012 10:27 PM CST up reply actions
Best chance to beat the Heat
First of all, I have a sincere disliking for the Heat, and I am not ashamed to say that I am biased :) One thing I am convinced of though (at least currently) is that Miami cannot win without Wade. And another point is that Wade is turning 30 this season, and he has been showing some signs of wear and tear with all the nagging injuries. Having said that, these are the teams that I feel have the best chance of keeping LeBron without a championship: Chicago (and I really feel like even with Wade; Miami is in trouble this year despite the Bulls losing to them last year). In the West though, I have I believe 3 cracks at beating the Heat this season if they make the finals; the Clippers (with Blake, Paul, and Butler); Oklahoma City (I really like the tandem of Durant/Westbrook) and of course Dallas who already beat them.
Impressive win today
In keeping with the good subject of whether the Cavs are competing for a spot in the playoffs, I am impressed with the fact that not only have we played 9 of 12 on the road, but we have won 4 of those including one today where we were behind 11 at halftime. I guess I don’t want to get too excited but winning on the road in the NBA is tough no matter who you are playing. I guess that fact alone probably says we can compete. It doesn’t hurt to have such a good young player like Irving. Very nice reverse layup I saw on the highlights. The plot probably will thicken as we go along.
Rookie Wall
I wonder what happens to this team when/if Irving hits the proverbial “rookie wall.” I know Byron has been managing minutes for all the players, but with the limited amount of basketball Irving has played over the last year or so, it’s not inconceivable that he wears down at some point in this condensed-schedule season. If this happens, signified by some minor aches and pains or reduced effectiveness on the second night of a back-to-back, coupled with an Antawn trade (fingers crossed), this team could find itself coming up a bit short more often than not.
CAVS Future Playoffsor Draft Picks
After last years dismal season it is great to even discuss the potential of the play offs.
It will take most of the shortened season to see how all the parts mesh and what is really required for the next step. Just want to see how this plays out but am definitely encouraged- I would say the Cav’s are exceeding all expectations.Agree with other comments that Andrew V. needs to stay in Cleveland now and in the future. Great site
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