{Editor's note: Front Page'd}

What kind of PER can we expect from Dion this year? What will his numbers this year indicate about his future career arc? Let's examine the evidence:

I've done some research about how college PER translates to the NBA. These were my search criteria:

- Player must play as a wing in the NBA (SG or SF).

- Player must be drafted in the top 9 picks (Only top-level talent is relevant here, and the #10 picks were all busts so I excluded them).

- Player must have played at a D-1 college for at least 1 year.

- Search limited to the 2003 - 2012 NBA drafts.

This gave me a list of 28 players including 5 from this year. Next, I looked up their PER for all college seasons & their first 4 seasons in the NBA. Some very interesting results, here are some highlights:

- Of the 23 players with NBA experience, only 3 posted a PER over 17 in their rookie year: Carmelo Anthony (17.58), Dwayne Wade (17.61), & Brandon Roy (18.08).

The next group was between 14-16: Kevin Durant (15.87), Josh Childress (15.22), Eric Gordon (14.98), Ben Gordon (14.92), OJ Mayo (14.23), Luol Deng (14.20), James Harden (14.05), Randy Foye (14.03)

3rd group: Paul George (13.06), DeMar DeRozan (12.58), Rudy Gay (12.41), Marvin Williams (12.24)

The 7 below that all appear to be below average players at best. 6 of these 7 players were drafted after their Junior year. Of 10 players drafted after their Junior or Senior seasons there was only 1 star (Brandon Roy), 2 above average players (Ben Gordon, Josh Childress) and 7 players that were below average or busts. Unsurprisingly, all 5 top 9 picks from 2012 were either Freshman or Sophomores.

- Dion Waiters posted a PER of 26.1 last year. Here is the list of players that did better than that in either their Freshman or Sophomore year: Kevin Durant (33.7), Dwayne Wade (31.4, 33.9), Carmelo Anthony (27.2), James Harden (29.7, 29.2). Durant & Anthony played in major conferences, Wade & Harden in mid-majors.

- PER for the top wings from the 2012 draft class: Dion Waiters (26.1), Terrence Ross (22.4), Bradley Beal (22.0), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (21.1), Harrison Barnes (21.0). Beal & MKG were freshman, though, so a 2nd year improvement would have been likely. Waiters was #9 in the NCAA among wings, and #1 among wings from major conferences.

My Conclusions: First year PER is very important. A player must exceed 12 to have any chance at becoming an above average player, and must exceed 14 to have a chance at becoming a star. Anything above 15.5 would give him an excellent chance at being a star, perhaps even a superstar.

The best comparison among that group is probably James Harden. Harden did have a better freshman year, and his PER was higher in both seasons. However, he also played in a weaker conference against weaker defenses. I have no doubt that Dion could have posted a PER above 29 in the Pac-12 last year. A similar career arc is a definite possibility.

Based on this information I would give Dion these odds:

Bust [off the team in 3 years] = 5%

Below Average [PER levels off around 13] = 10%

Average [PER levels off around 15] = 15%

Above Average [PER levels off around 17] = 25%

Star [PER levels off above 19] = 30%

Superstar [PER levels off above 24] = 10%

In other words, I give him a 2/3 chance of becoming at least an above average player, and a 2/5 chance of being a star. What do you guys think?

P.S. - Let me know if you want me to post anything else from the raw data.