FanPost

Dispelling the Myth of Drafting a Wing to "Win Now"

So I went back ten years and analyzed the top 3 picks for the last 9 drafts and compiled the basic rookie data. I did not look into PER and advanced statistics. Those tools are only useful to help to discern between players with similar overall output. The point of this exercise was only to show what kind of production we could expect from Otto Porter and/ or Macklemore(sic)/Oladpio.


2004:

1. Dwight Howard C: 12PPG, 10RPG(Ridiculous for an 18 year old rookie), 1.7 BLK.
2. Emeka Okafor C: 15 PPG 10.9 RPG, 1.7 Blk
3. Ben Gordon SG: 15 PPG 2 AST, 2.6 RPG


2005
1. Andrew Bogut C: 9 PPG, 7 RPG, 1 BLK
2. Marvin Williams PF: 8 PPG, 5RPG, 0.3 BLK
3. Deron Williams PG: 10 PPG, 4.5 AST


2006
1. Andrea Bargnani C: 11.6 PPG, 4 RPG, .8 BLK
2. LaMarcus Aldridge PF: 9PPG 5 RPG, 1.2 BLK
3. Adam Morrison SG: 11.8 PPG, 2.1 AST, 2.9 RPG


2007
1. Greg Oden C: 9PPG, 7 RPG, 1.1 BLK
2. Kevin Durant SF: 20.3 PPG 4.4 RPG 2.4 AST
3. Al Horford C: 10.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1 BLK


2008
1. Derrick Rose PG: 16.3 PPG 6 AST 3.58 RPG
2. Michael Beasley PF: 13.9 PPG 5.4 RPG
3. O.J. Mayo SG: 18.5 PPG(Career High) 3.2 AST, 3.8 RPG


2009
1. Blake Griffin PF: 22.5 PPG 12.1 RPG, 3.8 AST
2. Hasheem Thabeet C: 3.1 PPG 3.6 RPG
3. James Harden SG: 9.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 AST


2010
1. John Wall PG: 16.4 PPG, 8.3 AST, 1.8 STL
2. Evan Turner SF: 7.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.0 AST
3. Derrick Favors PF: 6.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG


2011
1. Mr 4th Quarter PG: 18.5 PPG 5.4 AST
2. Derrick Williams PF: 8.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG
3. Enes Kanter C: 4.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG


2012
1. Anthony Davis PF: 13.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.8 BLK
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF: 9.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 AST
3. Bradley Beal SG: 13.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.4 AST



Isolating the wings we have production that looks like this:
Ben Gordon SG: 15 PPG 2 AST, 2.6 RPG
Adam Morrison SG: 11.8 PPG, 2.1 AST, 2.9 RPG
Kevin Durant SF: 20.3 PPG 4.4 RPG 2.4 AST
O.J. Mayo SG: 18.5 PPG(Career High) 3.2 AST, 3.8 RPG
James Harden SG: 9.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 AST
Evan Turner SF: 7.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.0 AST
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF: 9.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 AST
Bradley Beal SG: 13.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.4 AST



EDIT:
Wing averages with Durant and Mayo: 13.2 PPG, 2.18 AST, 3.77 RPG
Wing averages without Durant and Mayo: 11.13 PPG, 1.96 AST, 3.7 RPG

Big Averages: 10.46 PPG, 6.5 RPG

So as we can see, Kevin Durant aside(There is no KD in this draft), and excluding O.J. Mayo,(anomaly, posted his best year ever as a rookie) help does not come in the form of rookie wing players. In fact, rookie wings are downright awful their first year. The best year offered by any of these players was Ben Gordon at: 15 PPG 2 AST, 2.6 RPG. I don't think replacing Waiters and adding that statline propels us into the playoffs.

Otto Porter is not an elite prospect, he is not going to have the best rookie year in the last ten years for a wing. Drafting Otto Porter is not a "Win Now" move. In fact, in terms of immediate impact, Centers and Power Forwards are clearly the best option.

Conclusion: If you want to win now, draft Nerlens Noel. If you want to win down the line, draft Nerlens Noel. Nerlens will immediately impact our interior defense from the first day he steps on the court. His quickness and shot-blocking ability will add a dimension our roster does not have. He is the best choice for now, he is the best choice for later.



This is a Fan-Created Comment on FearTheSword.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff at FearTheSword

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