Thoughts on a basic draft rating system

After all the arguments about how bad/not bad Grant's drafting has been I thought I would sketch out a simple system for rating draft picks within their own draft. This is what I have come up with to start, I will lay it out piece by piece and explain why for each piece. I am hoping to get a discussion going, not to say "look at this system, It works perfectly (or even great)". If you have an objection to something- say you hate win shares- then please suggest an alternative, or a way to improve the use of that stat. There are plenty of opportunities to post "win shares suck", please let us try to have a conversation here.

The system so far-

1. Take a players WS as a proxy for the quality of career that they have had so far. This should be self explanatory.

2. Compare that win share to the average of the 5 players taken immediately after that player. The reasoning- a pick can only be as good as what is available, using the average lets us differentiate between a bust pick where there was 1 very good pick that could have been made and a bust pick where there were 3-4 other good picks that could have been made. I view one error as worse than the other. I am starting with 5 picks after only, but I am not married to the actual number. I do not think it is productive, however, to say that Charlie Villanueva was a bad pick at #7 because David Lee had a much better career after being taken #30. Basically we are using the 5 picks after a proxy for who it would be reasonable to take there. I am way, way open to arguments that it is a terrible number to use and we should use #x.

UHHHH- thats it. I said it was simple.

For those interested I ran it for drafts 2003-2009 and the top 10 picks were











The bottom 10 were











Obviously a lot of these bottom guys basically didn't play in the NBA, so their starting point was 0 win shares.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff at FearTheSword

Log In Sign Up

Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Fear The Sword

You must be a member of Fear The Sword to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Fear The Sword. You should read them.

Join Fear The Sword

You must be a member of Fear The Sword to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Fear The Sword. You should read them.




Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.