FanPost

Thoughts on a basic draft rating system




After all the arguments about how bad/not bad Grant's drafting has been I thought I would sketch out a simple system for rating draft picks within their own draft. This is what I have come up with to start, I will lay it out piece by piece and explain why for each piece. I am hoping to get a discussion going, not to say "look at this system, It works perfectly (or even great)". If you have an objection to something- say you hate win shares- then please suggest an alternative, or a way to improve the use of that stat. There are plenty of opportunities to post "win shares suck", please let us try to have a conversation here.

The system so far-

1. Take a players WS as a proxy for the quality of career that they have had so far. This should be self explanatory.

2. Compare that win share to the average of the 5 players taken immediately after that player. The reasoning- a pick can only be as good as what is available, using the average lets us differentiate between a bust pick where there was 1 very good pick that could have been made and a bust pick where there were 3-4 other good picks that could have been made. I view one error as worse than the other. I am starting with 5 picks after only, but I am not married to the actual number. I do not think it is productive, however, to say that Charlie Villanueva was a bad pick at #7 because David Lee had a much better career after being taken #30. Basically we are using the 5 picks after a proxy for who it would be reasonable to take there. I am way, way open to arguments that it is a terrible number to use and we should use #x.

UHHHH- thats it. I said it was simple.

For those interested I ran it for drafts 2003-2009 and the top 10 picks were

LBJ

Paul

Wade

Howard

Iguodala

Durant

Bosh

West

Aldridge

Deng

The bottom 10 were

Darko

Oden

Monia

Telfair

Livingston

Bell

Swift

Snyder

Cabarkapa

Morrison

Obviously a lot of these bottom guys basically didn't play in the NBA, so their starting point was 0 win shares.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on FearTheSword.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff at FearTheSword

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