Everyone has been throwing out their own proposals on how they would fix the NBA lottery to help make tanking less prominent. There have been proposals that every lottery team has the same chances of receiving the first pick as well as proposals of a draft wheel with set draft positions years in advance. Basically, my idea involves including the playoff teams in the draft lottery as well. My lottery percentages follow with the current percentages in parenthesis:
(Note: There are 1000 chances and each .1% is one chance out of a thousand.)
1. 21.00% (25.00%)
2. 17.80% (19.90%)
3. 14.60% (15.60%)
4. 11.00% (11.90%)
5. 8.40% (8.80%)
6. 6.00% (6.30%)
7. 4.10% (4.30%)
8. 2.60% (2.80%)
9. 1.60% (1.70%)
10. 1.10% (1.10%)
11. 0.80% (0.80%)
12. 0.70% (0.70%)
13. 0.60% (0.60%)
14. 0.50% (0.50%)
15. 0.80% (0.0%)
16. 0.80% (0.0%)
17. 0.80% (0.0%)
18. 0.80% (0.0%)
19. 0.80% (0.0%)
20. 0.80% (0.0%)
21. 0.80% (0.0%)
22. 0.80% (0.0%)
23. 0.50% (0.0%)
24. 0.50% (0.0%)
25. 0.50% (0.0%)
26. 0.50% (0.0%)
27. 0.30% (0.0%)
28. 0.30% (0.0%)
29. 0.10% (0.0%)
30. 0.10% (0.0%)
There are a few points of interest with my new lottery odds:
-Only the first three picks will be decided using the lottery. The 4th-30th picks will be in reverse order of record (the same way as it is now).
-The 1-14 positions are determined the same way as they are now.
-The 15th-22nd positions are the teams which lost in the first round of the playoffs.
-The 23rd-26th positions are the teams which lost in the second round of the playoffs.
-The 27th-28th positions are the teams which lost in the conference finals.
-The 29th-30th positions are the teams which played for the NBA title.
-The reason that the 15th-22nd positions have better odds than the 12th-14th seeds are to incentivize teams that make the playoffs. A team is much less likely to tank at the end of the season to avoid being an 8th seed if they have higher lottery odds by making the playoffs. Also, it would help to eliminate the idea of an NBA purgatory. More on this later.
-There is a 9.2% chance of a playoff team receiving a top three pick in the draft. The chances are not high that it will happen, but there is still a possibility.
There would be many implications to this new draft lottery. Playoff teams would be much more likely to add a top three protection to trades involving their first round pick. It would also make unprotected selections even more valuable. The Spurs
’ first round selection would be almost as valuable as a late lottery selection. I believe teams would be much less likely to blow up their teams if there was a chance at a very high draft pick. There would be no NBA purgatory because there would always be the chance, every season, at a high draft selection. This year, the battle for a playoff spot in the East would be even more crucial because it leads to higher lottery odds as well as a playoff appearance for their fans.
Besides the team implications, it would also make an exciting event even more appealing. NBA draft
speculation would ramp up for every single fan base because every team has that sliver of a chance at a top three pick. Imagine the excitement that would arise if the Pacers
got the 2nd pick in the draft. Or the Spurs. Or the Suns
. Or (insert playoff team of your choice here)! The draft would no longer be an event to look forward to for only the fan bases’ of the teams which miss the playoffs.
One of the arguments I heard this year was that the Cavaliers
would be better off getting the 12th best lottery odds rather than make the playoffs and exit in the first round. I don’t think anyone would be saying that if the Cavaliers would have a higher chance at a top three pick by making the playoffs and received playoff experience in the process.
In the end, no proposal is going to be perfect. There will always be someone who doesn’t like it for their own personal reasons. There are probably better ideas out there concocted by some basketball expert somewhere, but this makes the most sense to me as an option which retains hope for the downtrodden while also incentivizing them to try to make something of themselves.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on FearTheSword.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff at FearTheSword