FanPost

The Curious Case of Tristan Thompson

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports


Looking for evidence of player development is sometimes easy. Dion Waiters averaged 14.3 pts and 2.7 assists per game prior to the All-Star break and 19.3 pts and 3.7 assists afterwards. Even controlling for his extra minutes per game his raw numbers would jump out at some one who wasn't even looking for improvement, but just happened to be perusing his splits.

This is what many observers expect to see from young players- an apparent "aha" moment (in this case Dion's showing at the Rising Stars game over the all-star break) where a player puts it all together. Even though this narrative is flawed (Dion's play leading up to the All-Star break was some of his best to that point in the season) it holds some truth to it. What has occurred since for a lot of Cavs fans is a projection based on that sample, because his TS% and his USG% jumped together, because he wracked up more assists, and because he was visually better on the court and in the box score his improvement was easy to see, and because he was in his second season his potential is easy to embrace.

Tristan Thompson has been spared this attention in a lot of ways, and viewpoints on FTS seem to range from thinking he's totally worthless to a decent role player with some potential remaining, and even among those holding out hope for Dion to reach All-Star status tend to discuss Thompson more as a solid citizen than as a potentially good basketball player. I am here to look at Thompson's season a little closer for some clues about how much potential he has left.

When you first look at his splits Thompson appears to have not only not improved over the year but actually to have regressed. His 12/9.5 prior to the ASB declined to 11/8.7- not a monstrous decline, but one that would cause many to hesitate when looking for improvement. When you did into his advanced numbers you see that though his scoring declined it was due to a combination of fewer minutes and a decreased usage rate. His scoring only dipped a little bit, and not a lot, because his TS% actually jumped a large amount. During the final 3 months of the season his TS% was 57.5%, 53.2% and 62.6%, and those two higher numbers, the 57 and 62, represent his second best and best month of his career (not counting 1 game months of October), and that 53 mark is tied for his 4th best month.

His pre and post ASB numbers (which don't line up perfectly with those monthly splits, but whatever) are the difference between a bad scorer (50% TS on 18% USG) and a solid one (57% TS on 16% USG). If you like +/- he went from a -6.5 to a -1.6 in that span as well.

As far as a development gap between TT and Dion is concerned TT is 8 months older and holds a year of pro experience over Dion (who had a year extra college ball to mitigate that a little). More importantly though, in my opinion, is the fact that TT has started 164 games in the past two years while no other Cav has started more than 130 (Kyrie Irving), and 3rd place on the list is Alonzo Gee with 106 starts.

More than any other of the Cavs young players Thompson has had to alter his game on a nightly basis. He started next to 4 different centers this past year, beginning the season with a giant on a bad knee that couldn't score out side of 6 ft, ending it with a 7 footer that consistently played behind the arc, while in between a veteran of many years battled to stay healthy and a 23 year old trying to find his own way in the league. When Dion and Kyrie missed time TT suited up with the Jacks, Pargos, Livingstons, Gibsons, Ellingtons, Dellys and Mileses of the NBA.

I would also describe the rank (and I mean rank) and file of SFs that have passed through, but I recently ate and don't want to ruin my carpet.

In the middle of all that chaos, with players coming and going, spot starting and disappearing, coaches changing and half of Cavs fans (or more) wishing they had taken Jonas Valanciunas ahead of him, he switched shooting hands. A totally unprecedented move in the NBA. And he didn't get worse, he didn't switch hands and have a down year while he figured things out, he switched hands and move his TS% up by 1.2 points. He switched hands and saw his turnover rate decline by almost 10%. He switched hands like he switched coaches and teammates, and after a rough start to the season he demonstrated the kind of growth you want to see from a young player.

This coming season will be the first time that TT can expect to have a defined role, to have consistency surrounding him on the court and to have multiple players capable of warping the defense. Given his work ethic so far and his improvements over the years with Lebron out there with him I think it is inevitable that he will show a large statistical improvement, but unlike many I think he was due for that in any situation this season.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on FearTheSword.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff at FearTheSword