FanPost

NBA Finals Preview- Commenter Roundtable, Part 2



3) Can the Cavs play James Jones at all vs the Warriors?


Ben (xfl2001fan): James Jones, I would love nothing more than to see a LOT of him, but I just don't know about seeing him for short periods of time. We'll probably see him some, because they like to go small there (Bogut and Green are the only real bigs in their Top 8 minutes played.) Festus Ezeli is their number 9 guy...but he's played less than 10 minutes per game. (He's played more minutes than Speights and David Lee combined.) I'm so torn on this. I think we can swing it for short stints because he does have the range necessary to open things up.

Josh (JoshVS): Absolutely, yes, for the reasons I mentioned above in answer to the second question. If they play Dray at center, which they do fairly often when they play small, Jones is solid enough to guard anyone they would put at the four (except maybe Barnes, not sure if he plays the four much when they play small), and tall enough that he can shoot over them. It’s very matchup dependent, but I think he can be an effective floor stretcher against them. Also, he might be an effective decoy for Iggy’ or Barnes’s defense at the 3, if we want to play exceptionally large for whatever reason. Neither of those guys scare me enough to say that he shouldn’t be able to guard them decently enough for 5-10 minutes if need be. With that, we can play LeBron at the point and Shump can smother Klay, and we present a defensive nightmare for them. All that to say, I think situationally, James Jones can provide a ton of value.

Ben (xfl2001fan): Alright JoshVS, I’m convinced. If they go small, we can bring in Jones. I think he’s an acceptable guy to put on Barnes (depending on who their other wings are.)

Josh (JoshVS): One caveat to my thoughts above: if they play Speights much, I think he generates bad matchups for Jones. I’m not sure what his health status is, but he is big enough to bully Jones, and with him in they can either play Bogut at the five or Dray at the four, both of which cause problems for a small ball lineup with Jones at PF. But without Speights, their big man rotation is shallow enough that I think Jones can make a positive impact.

Alex #2 (Gazeller): Golden State likes to go small, which bails out the Cavs’ lack of big men to an extent. With a combo of Iggy, Barnes, and Green manning the two forward positions, it would allow Jones and James to play the 3 and 4, respectively. However, if David Lee suddenly plays huge minutes at PF (like the game in February), there’s no way James Jones - or even LeBron - can deal with his size on a consistent basis. I think this series is good opportunity for him to make a big impact, much more so than against a team like Houston or Chicago that has large, physical PFs.

Alex (EVR1022): If we try, it will probably end badly. I expect a seven man rotation for most of the series.

Mike (WitMi) If he is making 3s at a 40% clip they absolutely can. JJ has obvious limitations defensively but if he can spell TT at the 4 and provide quality spacing and shooting then the Cavs need to give him 15 minutes a game. I think JJ will do well any time David Lee checks in or when the Warriors go SUPER small with Draymond at the 5 and/or Speights at the 4. JJ is still long enough to bother players on D, but he’s not even an average defensive player. JJ needs to make shots to stay on the floor, and we will really need him with the second unit.



4) Who is the biggest X Factor for each team?

Ben (xfl2001fan): I would have to go with Klay (and particularly his health) for the Dubs. His range is almost as limitless as Curry’s and he opens everything up for the rest of their offense. They don’t really have anyone else that scares me if he and Curry aren’t both on the court and healthy.

For the Cavs, it would almost have to be Delly. Nah, it’s Shump. I think that his job will be to make Curry as uncomfortable as possible. If he can minimize the hot streaks that Curry will get, we have a real good chance at stealing at least one game from the Warriors. (If Klay isn’t there then we have a GREAT chance at stealing game one from the Warriors.)

Josh (JoshVS): I think the first thing is to figure out what "X Factor" means. To me, an X Factor on a team is the player that is least predictable in his impact. Some players have a hugely positive impact, with very little chance of a negative impact. Some players can also have a chance at a huge positive impact, but instead deliver a major negative impact.

So, while I think Klay has potential for positive impact, the only unpredictability in his production is due to his concussion. The biggest range of potential outcomes for the Warriors, I think, comes from Harrison Barnes. He has the potential to be the most impactful player on the court at times (13 points and great defense against Harden in the 4th quarter of game five) or have almost no offensive output at all (0/9, 0 points, 6 rebounds, one assist in game three). While on a team as loaded as GS, his potential to lose a game for them is limited, he certainly can use possessions ineffectively, which is what we’d like to see him do.

For the Cavs, I think it’s got to be JR Smith. He’s been remarkably consistent in the playoffs so far, which is excellent, but as we all know he can either explode for 28 or throw up an oh-fer on any day. His defense is also inconsistent, if better than we had hoped when we traded for him. I can see Earl winning us a game on the road like he did with Atlanta, but I can also see him being a liability. Similar to Barnes, Smith probably isn’t going to lose a game for us by himself with all the talent around him, but it’s certainly enough that it can cause additional strain on LeBron and Kyrie to carry the load.

Alex #2 (Gazeller): I’ll cop out on this question by going with the group of Green/Barnes/Iguodala. In their most recent matchup, Blatt did his best to force the ball out of Curry and Thompson’s hands and dare the role players to make some big shots. While the trio above plus David Lee all scored between 9 and 19 points, Curry and Thompson were held in check, combining for 31 points on 10-30 shooting. The Splash Brothers had 7 less shots in that game than their average for the Rockets series, so anytime the Cavs can force them into passing up a shot, it’s a small victory for the defense. If Blatt employs the same strategy this time around, the Dubs will need the "other" offensive options to step up and win the series.

Kyrie is my X Factor for the Cavs. Nobody knows just how healthy he will be as the series progresses, and his limitations and abilities will have a profound effect on the outcome. A Kyrie Irving anywhere near 100% has the ability to take over the game and explode for 30+ points, even against a strong defensive squad like the Warriors. Plus, he allows LeBron to exert less effort on offense and gives JR, Shump, and Delly some rest on the bench. Without him, they’re down to a 7 ½ man rotation over a best-of-seven series and no one to keep Steph working hard on defense.

Alex (EVR1022): For the Warriors, I’ll pick Andrew Bogut because of how greatly he impacts their ability to defend LeBron James. With him on the floor, the Warriors can defend LeBron with Draymond Green and have Bogut lurking at the rim. That won’t stop LeBron, but it’s as good a formula as any to try and slow him down. With Bogut off the floor, it will probably be Barnes or Iguodala defending LeBron, with Green lurking near the rim. Against this we have Kyrie, Shump, and JR to space the floor, and it becomes a two man game with LeBron and TT running a spread P&R against one of Barnes/Iggy and Green. This will not go well for the Warriors. If they send help, LeBron will hit the open man for a catch and shoot three. If they don’t send help, we’ll probably be making some posters.

For the Cavaliers, I’ll pick Iman Shumpert for two reasons. First, he will likely defend Stephen Curry for a significant portion of the series. If he can do this effectively, then we can win. If he cannot do this effectively, then we’re in trouble. On the other end, his ability to make open threes will be important. If the Warriors have to give up an open three to one of Kyrie, JR and Shumpert, then they’ll pick Shumpert every time. If he can punish them early and often for making this choice it will keep the lane unclogged for LeBron and Kyrie to drive.

Tom (Bacon2): Klay's health for the Warriors. So much is unknown right now, but being out basically makes the Cavs favorites.

JR Smith for the Cavs. Shump can nail the open 3, but getting an open 3 means your offense has already done something well. Beating the #1 D in the league is going to mean scoring when things break down, and the open look isn't there. Lebron can do this, but I think he doesn't quite count as an X factor. The lack of 2ndary ball handler also will highlight Smith's quick hands on D. Shump's D and consistency will keep us in games, but Smith has the chance to win a game that was looking tough, ala game 1 in ATL. Lebron only needs 1 or 2 Boobie Gibson games to take a series against a tough D.

Mike (WitMi): For the Warriors, the answer has to be Andrew Bogut. No single player outside of Steph has as large of an impact on the game for GSW as the big Australian. If Bogut is in foul trouble they lose all rim protection and LBJ and Kyrie will feast going to the hole. Without Bogut the Dubs defense will get destroyed by the Cav’s spread pick and roll. If the Cavs can get Bogut in foul trouble the Warrior’s defense is simply not equipped to handle LeBron or Kyrie if they are surrounded by shooters.

The Cavs clear X factor is Kyrie Irving. If Irving is healthy, he and LeBron James are completely unstoppable on the perimeter. The LeBron/Kyrie PnR is going to give GSW fits if they decide to switch their coverage. Kyrie is too fast for Iguodala and LBJ will streamroll Steph. This forces GSW to hedge hard or fall back in their coverages. While I expect GSW to sag off LeBron given his shooting woes; this will not be a viable strategy when defending Kyrie Irving. The Cavs need Kyrie to be healthy to force GSW to adapt on defense. If Kyrie can be KYRIE! You’re talking about having to deal with 2 players who can score 40 on any given night. That completely changes the complexion of the series and causes GSW myriad problems defensively. Again, Kyrie’s ability to make Steph work on defense is going to be a giant key in this series.


5) Will the Cavs be able to negate the Warriors transition game with their offensive rebounding?

Ben (xfl2001fan): Bogut and Green have done a pretty good job of cleaning up the defensive glass for the Warriors and they both have the size and athleticism to match up well with TT and Mozgov. That being said, because our bigs are good at getting the offensive boards, yes. Their ability means that our guys can leak back a little bit to disrupt any outlet passes that the Warriors might try for. It’ll be important for our wings to keep their head on a swivel. If we get the board, they’ll need to get right back on offense. If we don’t, they need to be looking for the ball and (more importantly) the spot up shooters (Klay and Curry.)

Tom (Bacon2): What seemed like a clear advantage for the Cavs (total rebounding) now looks muddy to me. Regular season-wise the Dubs were a below average, but not flat out bad, rebounding team. The past two playoff rounds though are confusing. They hung tough with the Grizzlies, who were an average, to slightly above average rebounding team during the RS. But then they killed the Rockets on both ends- putting up reb% that would have been among the best in the league on both ends- and this after the Rockets won the rebounding battle over the Clippers pretty handily.

Of note for the Dubs- Thompson is basically their worst rebounder and was by far their worst in the Rockets series. Part of this is that he reverse leaks (gets back on D to prevent transition buckets) which showed up with Harden dominating the defensive boards (18% dreb rate). JR smith crushed the Hawks (22% dReb rate) but the big difference was that the warriors were able to stump the sf/pfs of Hou with Ariza, Smith and Jones having minimal impact (jones saw his Dreb rate almost cut in half).

Houston also struggled to snag offensive rebounds. So the Warriors were able to rebound at an elite level for 5 games. Was this a fluke/matchup based? Are the Warriors so versatile that they can switch between a below average rebounding team and and an elite one based on scheme? I would say that TT/Lebron are a totally different animal than the SF/PF combo that houston had, but Dwight is also a totally different animal than Moz. GSW were able to absorb Dwight’s dominance (32% dreb) on one end of the court because they were shutting out 3 other positions. Oreb wise they shut everyone down.

Josh (JoshVS): Here are some key rebounders the Warriors have faced so far in the playoffs, with their rebounding rates (regular season drb%, regular season orb%, Warriors series drb%, Warriors series orb%, offensive rebounding delta).

Anthony Davis: 24.1%, 8.0%, 22.1%, 5.9%, -2.1

Omer Asik: 28.8%, 14.0%, 23.4%, 17.2%, +3.2

Zach Randolph: 25.8%, 11.2%, 18.3%, 9.8%, -1.4

Marc Gasol: 21.8%, 4.9%, 28.5%, 6.0%, +1.1

Kosta Koufos: 25.8%, 10.3%, 24.6%, 17.6%, +7.3

Dwight Howard: 28.9%, 10.0%, 33.6%, 10.1%, +0.1

Josh Smith: 17.9%, 7.9%, 18.6%, 2.4%, -5.5

I went into gathering these stats not really knowing what kind of results to expect. The average delta for offensive rebounding for these players is +0.4, meaning the Warriors did a slightly worse job than league average at preventing offensive rebounds. This bears out with their regular season stats, where they ranked 18th in DRB% (74.5%). What’s interesting to me, though, is that the guys that gained the most rely on size and positioning more than athleticism for their rebounding. While none of Davis, Z-Bo, or Howard are particularly small, they don’t rely on their size for rebounding as much as their athleticism. Josh Smith, the smallest of the bunch, was basically useless on the offensive glass, after being moderately effective there in the regular season. Koufos, Asik, and Gasol, the guys who outperformed their season averages, are all seven footers. Howard, who basically performed at his regular season average, is 6’11".


So what does this mean for the Cavs? Tristan Thompson’s ORB% of 14.5% is the best the Warriors have seen so far in the postseason. I’ve seen his height listed as anywhere from 6’8" (nope) to 6’11" (probably not). I’d guess he’s actually 6’9.5" or so. So I expect he’ll probably actually perform a little below his season averages. However, Timo will probably benefit. This is the opposite of what I actually expected. Bogut’s defensive rebound rate is fantastic, both in the regular season and the playoffs. I guess the best way to deal with Bogut’s rebounding is size, which we can do with Timo.

The only tandem they’ve faced in the playoffs that have a total offensive rebounding rate near TT’s and Mozzy’s is Davis and Asik. TT an Mozzy totaled 25.9% in the regular season, compared to Davis and Asik totalling 22%. I suspect that TT and Mozzy will end up near their regular season total, which will limit the Warriors transition offense, but not necessarily eliminate it. Add in the fact that the Cavs have LeBron and Shump to get back on defense, and I think they’ll do fine.

Mike (WitMi): I’ll tell you this, if the Cavs O rebounding cannot slow down the Dubs transition game the Cavs won’t win this series or even drag it out for more than 5 games. GSW, while competent in the half-court, is insane in transition. Any time Draymond Green gets a rebound he instantly sprints the other way down the court. Having 4 and sometimes 5 players who can lead a fast break is why GSW is so impossible to defend. If the Cavs can keep Green focused on defensive rebounding, and not on securing a board and turning up court, the Cavs will have a chance to win every game.

It seems counter-intuitive but rebounding will be the major deciding factor in the series. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving will get all the fame but this series will be won or lost on the offensive glass with TT and Mozgov. If the Cavs can control the boards and force GSW to play in the half-court, they’ll win, or have a chance to at least; if they don’t, they’ll lose. The ugly truth is that if GSW is playing their best, the Cavs can’t match them so the Cavs have to force GSW to adapt and do something different. The team that forces adjustments the most is the team that will win this series.

Alex #2 (Gazeller): Believe it or not, the Cavs have actually done a stellar job with their transition defense this postseason. On a per game basis, they are giving up the 2nd lowest PPP of all 16 playoff teams (0.95- behind only the Mavs 0.87 and ahead of strong defensive squads like Memphis, Chicago, and Washington). Additionally, they are doing a great job of limiting those possessions in the first place, as they give up on average 13.6 transition possessions per game- about 13.2% of their defensive possessions- good for 4th among playoff teams. This means so far they have been effective in slowing down the pace of the game to a tempo that allows the starters to play more and less taxing minutes. The Cavs continued plan will be to send TT and Mozgov to the boards and get everyone else back on defense. The pair each have an ORB% above 12% in the playoffs while LeBron is the only other Cavalier with a rate above 5%. Although I believe it’s impossible to shut down the Warriors’ magnificent transition game, from what the Cavs have shown post-Kevin Love, it’s certainly possible to slow them down enough to win some games.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on FearTheSword.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff at FearTheSword

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