Fear The Sword: FanPosts

Draftwatch: Kevin Murphy and Drew Gordon

2012-05-15T22:48:07Z

Thanks to summer I have time to do these even with a job, wife, and kid! I love summer break

Kevin Murphy- 6'6 (without shoes, 6'7 with?) 185 lb SG/SF Tennessee Tech

"There's no bad shots for him, because he can make shots ... all kinds of shots," - His head coach Steve Payne

For a second round pick, I really like Murphy if we haven't gotten a scoring 2 yet. If we trade up, it'll probably be a package of 24 and 33/34, leaving us one extra 2nd rounder. Both these guys I'm talking about today would be available there.

Kevin Murphy is a scorer. He shot 44% from the field and 41% from three while averaging 20 points a game. He does it in a variety of ways too. Anything involving him shooting, he's good at. Whether it's catch and shoot with his feet set, coming off screens, or creating his own shot, he shoots it all at the same rate, which is pretty good for a scorer. The majority of his points come off jump shots (which he can make from anywhere) but occasionally he'll take it to the hole too. He's not overly explosive but he finishes well enough when the lane is open. Some concerns have been made of struggles he had against some good teams. While this is a valid concern, he's also really the only scorer his team has, so he's much easier to key in to. At the Portsmouth Invitational he played very well and proved he can score against other seniors who could be headed to the NBA.

On defense, he's pretty good one on one but he does really well in a team concept. He channels guys to where his help will come from well and has pretty good tools to at least be an adequate defender at the next level. He could use a little more bulk, but that's not a big deal.

Overall, I could see him as a bench scorer. He'd be a distinct upgrade over Manny thanks to the diversity in shots he can make so he'll add a lot more offensively while losing nothing on the defensive end. His coaches love him and he's a great teammate too. If we get Davis or MKG with our first pick, I'd be willing to make a case for this kid if Doron Lamb's gone by the early second round.

PS- Great article on him here: http://www.nba.com/2012/news/features/chris_dortch/03/01/kevin-murphy/index.html

Drew Gordon- 6'9 240 lb PF New Mexico

You can never have enough size. Gordon's not a guy loaded with potential or anything but he's got a couple NBA skills that could make him a useful rotation player. Offensively, he's not very diverse. He can finish around the rim and he's got good form on his 15 footer. Good form didn't translate as made shots (27% from midrange) but he's an efficient FT shooter (75%) so the base is there. He's pretty good in the post against mid-major schools which means he'll probably only post guys up when he gets a 1 or 2 on a switch. I find it highly unlikely that he'll be known for his scoring prowess at the next level.

On the other hand, his rebounding is fantastic. He averaged 11.1 rebounds in 30 minutes. He's great at both offensive and defensive rebounding. He boxes out and pursues boards quite efficiently. He's also a pretty good defender with a bit of a mean streak. He holds his ground in the post, handles face up 4's very well, and can normally keep up with his man on the perimeter. He's not a great shot blocker and he probably won't be a defensive anchor, but he should be able to make it so you can stick him on a guy and not have to worry about him.

For the Cav's, he'd come off the bench. I'd be amazed if he wasn't an upgrade over Samuels. He can probably provide those 5 points in 15 minutes off of garbage baskets but he'll bring more rebounding and defending. He'd fill a role similar to Lou Amundson or Reggie Evans. He'll need to add a little offensively to really be effective, but he's got the potential to be a good rotation player. If we've taken 2 wings with our 1st 2 picks, I'd be alright with us taking him. If we get Davis or Moultrie, I wouldn't be. I don't think he'll be more than a good bench player, but championship teams need good bench players too

how the cavs changed the nba landscape

2012-05-10T07:11:51Z

this is my first fan post so go easy on me ok haha

so i was thinking the other day while watching cp3 gash the grizzliesif the clips and cavs dont pull the trigger on the baron davis/mo williams tradethe clips draft kyrie irving....if the clips draft kyrie irving,they dont make the move for cp3and give up eric gordon and company,a clips lineup with kyrie,blake,and gordon,plus the other pieces they gave up make the clips a formidable team.....havent checked but lets assume they still have the cap space to sign eitherbillups or caron butler also,thats a tough squad

that said,since the clips have they pg situation fixed,they dont go after cp3once the lakers get they trade nixed by david "michael corleone" stern,they get a chanceto go back and re-package a deal for cp3 without the clips comin in to steal cp3 out from under the lakers......a big 3 of cp3 kobe and bynum is the best big 3 in the league hands down,and makes the lakers the instant favorites in the league

aside from the obvious the baron davis trade affects the cavs in other waysif the lakers have cp3,they dont feel the need to trade for sessions,givin the cavs one less 1st rounder this yearwhile the cavs are building around brandon knight or kemba walker(preferably knight)

anyway...im relatively new to FTS so this has been probably has been covered already,i acknowledge that there is alot of conjecture and salary cap issues that come into play into the scenario ive posted,but i was curious what everyone here thinks about it

go cavs

The Future of the Cavaliers:A Quick Look Back Then A Look Ahead

2012-05-08T21:26:04Z

via www.logowallpaper.net

Two years ago, the Cavaliers had one of the best seasons in team history. They finished with the best record in the NBA and were faced with the Chicago Bulls in the first round of the playoffs and defeated them pretty handily in five games. This was almost the same as the current Bulls team, minus Carlos Boozer, Rip Hamilton and a few other pieces shifted around. Then came the dreaded second round.

After having the series tied with the Boston Celtics, the Cavaliers destroyed them in Game 3 124-95. Lebron James scored 38 points, and this is where I think he made his choice to leave, seeing what he can do by himself, and wondering what he could do with better players. But I'm not here to bring out that old skeleton, I just want to show you how much better this team can be when built correctly, not with the Single Superstar player model. For Football fans see: 2011-2012 Indianapolis Colts.

via a.espncdn.com. The Face of Betrayal

Then he left. The team seemingly imploded, but that was the moment my fandom for the Cleveland Cavaliers became the strongest. For some reason I felt that the Cavaliers could actually do what Dan Gilbert had said in his open letter to the fans. But that season had other ideas. The Cavaliers set a record for losing streaks losing 26 in a row. The streak snapped with a win against what should be the Cavaliers new best friend, the LA Clippers. In a trade that sent Mo Williams to LA and Baron Davis here, the Cavs acquired a pick. That pick would be the Next Messiah in Kyrie Irving.

via losthatsportsblog.com. The new Messiah. On the right, obviously

This past year, Kyrie Irving surpassed all expectations by far, and should be a unanimous decision for the Rookie of the Year award. The Cavs surpassed their win total from the prior year with sixteen less games played and Anderson Varejao out for most of the year. Granted, he was out for much of the year before, but I got what only could be described as a feeling. A feeling that we will soon have a contending team.

The Cavaliers are currently slotted 3rd in the lottery standings with a 13.8% chance at that coveted first overall pick. Hey, Nick Gilbert will be carrying the torch on the Lottery day once again, so What's Not to Like? The worst pick the Cavs can end up with is sixth, so I'll list the best seven prospects, based on what Chad Ford thinks.

The top seven include, in order of the current standings mock draft on ESPN, Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Brad Beal, Thomas Robinson, Andre Drummond, Harrison Barnes, and Perry Jones.

Based on this, we can automatically remove Perry Jones, because that is the seventh player, and the Cavs are guaranteed at least sixth. I'd say we could remove Barnes because the chances to get sixth are only 4.6%. So then it comes down to whether you'd rather get the big man or the wing. Well, because I consider Anthony Davis the only true can't miss prospect, if the Cavs get that number one, Davis is the only choice. But what if another team gets the first pick? So then it comes down to what I said earlier, Big Man or Wing?

In the wing department, we have Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Bradley Beal.

In the big man department, there's Thomas Robinson and Andre Drummond.

I think that the wings are better at being wings than the big men are at being big men, in regards to these particular players. Either way, picking one prevents the Cavs from choosing the other. And everyone knows about that "Third" guy that no one can ever seem to get. Just ask the Oklahoma City Thunder. Except they have high quality at all five positions, shown by how they swept the reigning NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks. Still, if the Cavaliers end up third in the lottery, Beal is my choice.

In case you forgot, the Cavaliers had acquired the first round draft pick and some loose change players from the Lakers in exchange for Ramon Sessions and some other stuff. That pick will be mid to high twenties, netting not very much in terms of impact players in the draft, unless Chris Grant can find a steal a la Serge Ibaka. But chances are, there is no such player in this draft. If all you'd need out of a big man is to be big, then it'd be easy, but big men need to be more that just a big size in the paint.

The Cavaliers also hold the 33rd and 34th pick in the second round. Trading up is easy in the NFL draft, but not so much in the NBA draft. However there are two teams that may part with a lottery pick for all three of the Cavs' later picks. They are the New Orleans Hornets and the Portland Trailblazers because they have two lottery picks, and may only really need one. The Hornets seem less likely to me because the Trailblazers are a better team. If that fails, then adding in a player like Gee could sweeten a deal with Portland to land a pick around number ten. That would be enough for a good big man prospect such as Tyler Zeller or Meyers Leonard. This team is looking better and better isn't it? Still a trade into the lottery scenario is extremely unlikely but maybe the Blazers end up with an early pick and a late pick, and decide to part with their late pick.

The more likely option would be to keep the Laker pick, and hope we good something good, a steal if you will. Fab Melo and Jeff Taylor would be good picks for a mid to late 20 pick. If the Cavs do land Davis, I think you'd have to just work with what picks you have and keep the Laker pick. That would leave a wing spot open that a guy like Jeff Taylor could fill, much like Tristan Thompson this year. Not start outright, but a great second option. But here is another reason to get the wing instead of the big man. Who would you rather replace, Anthony Parker, or Anderson Varejao? The overwhelming majority would probably say Parker.

The best choice to me, again, is Bradley Beal. With Jamison leaving, the Cavaliers need someone who can create offense on their own. There is Tristan Thompson too, who with some strengthening and practice could be a strong presence in the paint and a force for rebounds, but I don't see him as much of an offensive threat anytime soon.

Adding only a single new player to this mix is a good thing for chemistry purposes. This lineup to me seems like it would gel together great, where they compliment each other greatly. Kyrie to run the offense, Beal to score, Gee for secondary scoring and defense, Thompson for rebounding and paint presence and Varejao to do all of the crazy rebounding and ball saving and all of the other insane things he does.

I've shown you what happened to the Cavaliers and how "The Decision," was a good thing for the long run and how in just under another year, the Cavs can be great again. By no means does this mean that Brad Beal, or Anthony Davis or any prospect can do what they are projected to do, but I hope I have provided a glimmer of hope for the future, who ever we get. The bottom line is, the draft is how you improve, not Free Agents. Some of this may have been gone over millions of times, but I wanted to put everything together. Most importantly, I want to say that Kyrie Irving WILL lead the Cavaliers to the Finals in the future. People said that the Draft in 2011 wasn't deep. That's because Irving owned the entire pool of talent in that draft. Hold your breath for a second. I think Kyrie can be the best point guard in the NBA since Magic. That's Johnson if you were wondering. I'm not comparing their play style or anything, I'm talking about the results. One thing Kyrie has that no Cavalier in recent years has had is absolute fearlessness. Is Dwight Howard guarding the paint with time winding down and down by 1? No problem, Kyrie will take it right against him. Unless another team members shot is wide open he will take it himself, not pass it off.

So I guess you can call this a combination of a look at the recent past, a supporting of the future of Kyrie and a draft preview all in one. I hope I didn't ramble too much and that you enjoyed my thoughts. I started this to show what I think the Cavaliers should do with the draft, how it'd be better than the last era for the Cavs and it just snowballed. Be patient, wins will come, I guarantee it.

Draftwatch: Dion Waiters and Festus Ezeli

2012-05-04T06:14:58Z

Finals are over! Thus, the draft becomes easier to follow

So first off...

Dion Waiters: SG 6'4 - 210 pounds.

So I really didn't start to like Waiters until recently. When I looked at more than his height. He sounds like, if we land Davis, he'd be a great option to try and pick up as our newest SG, though we'd probably have to trade up from 24 to do it. Even then, Ford says he's moving up everyone's draft boards lately. With the quantity of good 2's and 3's though, I still think he, or Rivers, or J. Lamb could drop to 20 or so.

What I like about him: Everything but his height for the most part. He's a bit undersized. I guess. Plenty of good SG's are that small though. Eric Gordon, Wade, Marcus Thornton, and Jason Terry to name a few. While he's a bit smallish, he's athletic and very explosive. Not super fast in the open court but he's got a great first step and excellent slashing ability. When he's in the lane, he's got a very good handle, one of the slickest looking spin moves I've ever seen in a highlight video that only shows his good stuff, and quite a bit of bulk. He absorbs contact well and can beat up his defender with his physicality. Sounds like he's got a bit of a mean streak too. He doesn't have the most consistent jump shot but it's pretty good. His 3 point % was 36, up from 32.9 as a freshman. While it's not what you'd like it to be, it improved and on more shots too.He doesn't force many bad shots and he's at least an adequate passer who doesn't turn the ball over a whole lot.

On the defensive end he plays in a zone. That doesn't give you the best idea of what he can do as a defender but I did some research and there's some good articles out there. According to a si.com breakdown of the syracuse defense, he's the best perimeter defender they had by a large margin. He forced the most turnovers and allowed the fewest points of any perimeter player that played for cuse. He's a pickpocket, producing 1.8 steals in just 24 minutes. As an actual man to man defender, he's got the size and athleticism to be good as well as the aggressiveness and drive.

His ceiling is probably somewhere around Marcus Thornton but with defensive effort, which would make him far more valuable than Thornton is, and an excellent 6th man on a contending team. If we trade up for him or he somehow falls to us and we still need a SG, I'd be stoked if he landed him

Festus Ezeli: C, 6,11 - 255 lbs

There's not a whole lot I can say about him. At least in comparison to Waiters. He's the size of an NBA center. This qualifies him as a late 1st round/early 2nd round pick. Concerning his game...

Offensively, he's pretty mediocre. He's got a few post moves but he's not bad but not great with any of them really. He turns the ball over a lot and he doesn't have the best hands. He does a good job fighting for position in the post though and most of his touches came there. He's a very good catch and finish guy but he won't be creating his own offense all that much at the next level. Something to consider is that he's also a senior, though he started basketball later in life. His ceiling just isn't all that much higher than where he is now

When it comes to rebounding, he's quite mediocre. He's big and mobile, but he doesn't box out and he doesn't pursue rebounds very well. His defense overall will be what gets him drafted though. He's a very good post defender, has shown he can defend the pick and roll well, and he blocks quite a few shots. He uses his bulk and athleticism well in these areas but does have a propensity to get into foul trouble. He averaged about 3 fouls in 23 minutes for the last 2 years

Overall, he's probably worth one of our 2nd round picks. There just aren't a whole lot of C's that are gonna be available later on but if you really think about it, there aren't any scaring post up centers in the entire eastern conference. His talents would best be used against guys like Tim Duncan, Al Jefferson, or Andrew Bynum in the west. I'd be pretty meh if we drafted him. Neither upset nor excited.

One Year Down: Early Returns On The Cavs Selection Of Tristan Thompson

2012-05-03T03:43:03Z

(Editor's note: FP'd for awesomeness. Read this whole thing.)

I was at a West Toledo bar playing shuffleboard with my friends the night the Cleveland Cavaliers began to turn the page from LeBron James by selecting Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson. I was already relieved that the Cavaliers were apparently going to select Mr. Irving. After watching him dismantle the Michigan State Spartans in a November game as part of the Big Ten/ACC challenge, I was on board. But there were some who wanted to take Derrick Williams, and either Kemba Walker or Brandon Knight. Chris Grant didn't go down that road, and he deserves a lot of commendation. So in analyzing how we used the fourth pick, I am going to assume that Kemba and Brandon were not the right picks. I was hoping for Enes Kanter, but he went off the board at 3. When the Cavaliers took Mr. Thompson, however, I was deeply disappointed. My friends, who follow the Cavaliers really only as far as I do, asked me who he was, what he was good at. I had no idea.

We are familiar with the things that were immediately said about Mr. Thompson, and it seems like most of the scouts were right on. Tristan is very athletic, very raw, and works hard, especially on the offensive end rebounding. And the free throws. Oh, did we hear about the free throws. He had his first full season, and I think now it is fair to start analyzing Chris Grant's choice. We won't be able to come to any hard and fast conclusions just yet. I don't believe we will really know until 2014. But we all know that in the NBA, for a small-market team, the window to succeed is small, and the draft is the lifeblood of a rebuilding team.

First, a few things that should be taken into account when judging Tristan against his 2011 draft peers. No serious fan, and certainly not Chris Grant, looked at Thompson with the idea that he would be an immediate difference maker that would show why he was worthy of a top 5 pick. He was a project. The Cavaliers, with Byron Scott, are a disciplined team that focuses on defense and smart play. As good as Tristan's motor is, he simply wasn't going to be able to play the type of basketball Coach Scott wanted right away. And this was part of the allure of Grant bringing him to Cleveland in the first place. A strong, disciplined environment, where winning wasn't seen as immediately necessary, and he could be brought along slowly, was always the plan for Tristan.

Next, the lockout happened. There was no summer league, there was a shortened training camp, and for a long time Coach Scott wasn't even allowed to contact Thompson. Thompson clearly worked out, and worked to improve, and it isn't exactly a secret the areas in which he needed to get better, but without the Cavaliers staff working with him consistently, it was a wasted summer and fall.

There was a factor this season this really helped Tristan, though. Imagine Kyrie Irving never came to Cleveland. The Cavaliers still had Mo Williams, and the Clippers trade never happened. Tristan is made the 4th pick of the draft and all eyes are on the rookie out of Texas as the great hope to lead the Cavaliers back to respectability. The media focus might have been hurtful. As a project, it was really helpful for the Cavaliers to have the pressure off of Thompson, and on the shoulders of Kyrie Irving, who handled all the pressure in a way that was simply amazing for a 19 year old.

I will analyze three issues; how did Tristan Thompson fare, how does this compare to players drafted after him, and what does this mean going forward?

How did Tristan Thompson play this year?

The hard numbers: 24 mpg, 8.2 ppg on 44% shooting, 6.5 rpg, 3.1 offensive rpg, 2 fouls pg, 1.4 to's pg, 1 block pg. PER: 13.37. The advanced metrics say that Tristan was worth 1.1 wins in terms of his win share, .9 of which came from his efforts defensively. (Kawhi Leonard led all rookies with 5.5 added wins, with Kenneth Faried at 4.6 and Kyrie at 4.1. More on this later.) His free throw percentage improved throughout the season, and he finished at 55%. This isn't good, but his improvement bodes well for the future.

What we actually saw: The motor is certainly there. He actually seemed to be blocking more shots early on in the year, when he knew less about his positioning on the floor, and where he was actually supposed to be. Understandably, when he played on instincts, his athleticism allowed him to fly all over the floor contesting shots, grabbing offensive rebounds, and trying to make an impact on the game. But this won't make him an effective player on a contending basketball team, and he seems to understand this. The coaching staff is certainly doing everything they can to get it in his head. While trying to play the game with his head is a key part of his growth, especially if he is going to fulfill his potential as an all-world defender, it led to some growing pains. Early on in the season you might see two or three blocks that made you say wow, but you also watched blown assignments and guards get through the lane without any help coming. Some of this was Antawn Jamison, Semih Erden, and Ryan Hollins, no doubt about it. And Kyrie, Ramon Sessions, and Anthony Parker weren't exactly defensive stars on the perimeter. Ultimately, he has all the tools to put his game together and be a great shot blocker and contester, while playing excellent on ball defense, and giving help to his teammates when they get beat off the dribble.

Offensively, he was just as raw as advertised. There is no post up game to speak of. He has a baby hook with decent touch on it, but has no clue how to get himself in position to use it. He travels when he does get the ball with his back to the basket (though his turnover rate isn't terrible, all things considered), and if a stronger Power Forward is on him, he can get bullied a bit and shoot falling away from the basket. This would be bad for a good shooter, and Tristan Thompson is not a good shooter. Eventually his athleticism should allow him to spin off stronger post players and attack the basket, but this isn't a part of his game at the moment.

He seems to be most comfortable facing up opposing post players, and early in the season surprised some of us by having a strong first step and decent touch. Due to his relative speed, he should also be successful cutting towards the basket. Unfortunately, he is just not comfortable yet and his hands are a liability. When the Cavs went to him on cutting plays, he averaged .89 points per possession, which was in the bottom 11% of all NBA players.

In Sebastian Pruiti's final rookie rankings for the season, Tristan didn't crack the top 10. In David Thorpe's rankings, he finished right at 10. His Player Efficiency rating ranked 18 among rookies. But these rankings don't happen in a vaccuum. The Cavs didn't need Tristan Thompson to be the second best rookie in basketball this year. They need him to be the second best player in the draft in 5 years, and, in fairness to Chris Grant, it may only be right to expect him to be the fourth best player from the 2011 draft.

How did players taken behind Tristan fare?

As I struggled at shuffleboard, I was pretty certain the Cavs would select Jonas Valanciunas. The team was certainly comfortable with overseas players, as Zydrunas Ilgauskas had been a beloved member of the franchise for what seemed liked forever. There was no way to know if Jonas would come over immediately, but it seemed immaterial. The Cavaliers weren't going to win immediately anyways, and expecting a 19 year old 7 footer to contribute seemed silly anyways. If they didnt get Valanciunas, I thought Kawhi Leonard would be a good addition. Athletic, big, strong, and some scoring to go along with strong defense. I wasn't quite sure why his stock seemed to be dipping.

Jonas will ultimately be the guy that Tristan gets compared to, for better or worse. Valanciunas didn't come over from Europe, but that doesn't mean much. From the sounds of it, he is super talented and is producing in a big way for his Lithuanian team. While his numbers, 10.8 ppg and 7.6 rpg dont blow you away, the Raptors continue to fawn over the big man. Toronto coach Dwane Casey is on the record saying "At the worst, we are getting a Joakim Noah". It is impossible to really compare the fourth and fifth picks in the draft at this stage, but this doesn't make the outcome any less important.

For rookies who did play this year, there are arguments to be made that Iman Shumpert, Kenneth Faried, Marshon Brooks, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks, and Leonard could ultimately end up as better players than Tristan. With Kyrie Irving in the fold, it really doesn't seem relevant to even consider the futures of other point guards like Isaiah Thomas or Brandon Knight. Klay Thompson. Not a bad time to point out that Chris Grant could have taken Jan Vesely, which would have already been raising major red flags. And, with a different owner, there may have been pressure to take Jimmer Fredette in hopes of selling tickets.

It is fair to wonder, however, how Iman Shumpert would look with Kyrie Irving in the backcourt. Outstanding defense to mix with outstanding offense. Kawhi Leonard ended up being a better scorer than anyone could have imagined, and still has the tools to develop into a great defender as well. Playing for the Spurs, he really couldn't be in a better position to succeed. Brooks can score, but what else?

Kenneth Faried is also fair game. He was the only rookie with a higher PER than Kyrie, due mainly to outstanding rebounding. He isn't as athletic as Tristan, and is similarly limited offensively. It is easier to see Tristan improving offensively, and becoming a true defensive force. Still, if Ken Faried is already capable of being the 5th or 6th best player on a good playoff team, Tristan Thompson is definitely not. You want a bit more than that with the fourth pick in the draft.

What happens next

Tristan goes to work with the aforementioned Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Full summer session in Las Vegas with Kyrie Irving and the team's 2012 draft picks. Free throws, free throws, free throws. David Thorpe towards the end of the season imagined a re-draft, knowing all the information we have now about the players. Tristan Thompson was the second pick of the draft. Thompson seems coachable, is not content to just be an athletic dunker, and seems committed to the team winning. It will be interesting to see the 2011 draft class grow; it is clearly full of better players than the experts were prepared for. Our second selection seems a lot better than it did when I was losing at shuffleboard, and that is enough.

For now.

"I want to thank Cleveland for supporting us through a tough year, we promise to keep getting better, I'll see you next season!" - Tristan Thompson. I love the attitude. Thanks for reading.

The Winner's Curse

2012-05-02T15:52:32Z

Alternate title "Why FA Signings Rarely Work Out (and what that means for the Cavs) - Part 2"

In Part 1 I used Deron Williams as an example of why even a player who appears worth his massive contract can set a team behind in the chase for a championship when other teams have access to high quality but much cheaper options. In part two I am going to talk about why most big FA signings flat out don't involve players living up to that contract. Think Larry Hughes.

OK, that was cruel, I'll give you a minute to wash the vomit out of your mouth and I'll see you after the Jump.

The Auction Winner's curse is a well know concept when it comes to markets. In a lot of ways it is related to theories centered around the notion that markets are efficient. Basically it comes down to this- if you win an auction with a high bid you are de facto saying that you know more about this item (in our case a player) than any of the other bidders. If you got to compete against hand selected teams, ie only the Clippers and the Kings were involved in the bidding with you, it wouldn't be unreasonable at all to claim that you were smarter than they were and your bid is much closer to the players true value. Realistically though there are many good GMs in the league and several exceptional ones who also have the opportunity to appraise the situation. Even those without cap space could usually find a way to dump salary if they thought the player was truly a bargain (this does increase the cost of acquiring the player but if you were getting a GREAT deal it would be worth it in most cases). This basically means one of two things

1. You are the smartest/luckiest GM in the league on this contract.

2. There is very little chance that the player you signed will outplay his contract.

Number 2 is simply much more likely than #1 and so in most cases of good signings you only see a small amount of value gained. On the downside of the contract though you can have

1. Bad luck- a string of injuries/arrests makes the player's value plummet

2. The rest of the pack were right and you over payed.

Here the downside is much larger than the likely upside with the potential for horrifically bloated contracts weighing your franchise down for years to come. This is the essence of the winner's curse- limited upside with much larger downside combined with the fact that the rest of the bidders are actively disagreeing with your sentiment means- you are likely screwed.

There are several exceptions to this rule in today's NBA.

1. Your own players. It is much more reasonable to claim to have more information on players you have worked with for years and seen at practice every day. You also have other incentives you can add to their contract- such as early extensions which reduce risk, and thus hold value, for the the player.

2. High risk players. When the risk is obvious, such as a history of injuries, it drives down the value and thus the cost of a player. This allows for a much higher ceiling + a higher floor. Consider signing a former highly drafted player who has underperformed his first 4 years in the league due to injuries for 5 mill a year. If he is a bust and continues to be injured you lose 5 mill a year but if he puts those problems behind him he could end up being worth 10-15 million a year. Consider how much easier it is for a player to be worth 10-15 million a year (there are several dozen in the league at any time) than it is for a player to be worth 25-30 million a year (there are only a handful) and you can see why betting 5 million on a talented but trouble player is a better bet than 15 million on a very good player without major issues.

3. Players worth more than the Max. The Cavs aren't landing Dwight, stop dreaming. Er, how about stop dreaming about Dwight and spend your time dreaming about the Unibrow!

If I haven't convinced you yet think about this. When was the last TERRIFIC mid level exception signing? How many can you name that worked out really well? How many can you name that didn't work out so well? Because every team can use the Mid-level at no extra cost the above theory would predict that these signings would be among the least valuable in the league.

These two posts describe why I don't want the Cavs to spend a penny on high priced FAs like Eric Gordon or Chris Kaman this offseason.

Deron Williams Isn't a Max Player

2012-05-02T14:57:45Z

Alternate title "Why FA Signings Rarely Work Out (and what that means for the Cavs) - Part 1"

Deron is clearly going to receive the max offer from some (OK multiple) team this offseason, and dear lord I believe all the thrilled fans of that franchise will have essentially no shot at a championship*, or even a finals appearance, over the next 5 years. This is seemingly counter-intuitive as Deron is extremely good at basketball and should be in his prime for the entirety of his contract, but due to the way the NBA is currently structured it is undoubtedly true.

Reasoning after the Jump

The PG position is stuffed with talent right now and its pretty clear that Chris Paul and D Rose are the cream of that crop, with Deron solidly wedged in the 2nd tier at his position. This post isn't about individually ranking all the PGs and figuring out Williams' position on the list, but about discussing his placement among his peers with respect to the overall cost of signing him.

Lets look at this second tier with their age and (rough) salaries over the life of their current contract

Tony Parker- 29 12.5 mill/year

Rajon Rondo- 25 12 mill/year

Steve Nash- 38 FA- last contract 11.5 mill/year

Westbrook- 23 - 16 mill/year

Given age, production (both defensive and offensive) and contract I think a strong case can be made for Deron being the least valuable player on this list over the next two seasons on a max deal if Nash continues to preform at a high level and makes 10 mill/year or less.

There is also another group of young and talented PGs coming up in Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Ricky Rubio, Goran Dragic, Kyle Lowry, Jrue Holiday, Jeremy Lin, Isaiah Thomas, Tyreke Evans and each of these players will cost between 10 and 15 million less per year than Deron will command this off season. Obviously you would rather have Deron Williams than Jrue Holiday but would you rather have Deron Williams than Jrue + Eric Gordon?

The reality of the PG position right now is that there is a huge amount of cheap talent combined with a good amount of high level talent that is either straight up better than Deron is (Paul, Rose) or as good but cheaper. Whichever team ends up signing him will probably be getting the 8th to 12th most valuable PG in the league in terms of salary cap dollars over the life of his contract. In terms of building a championship team this will put his team well behind and they will need a lot of cheap talent at the other positions to make up for this gap.

Alright- this is a blog about the Cavs, how does a FA they won't ever even discuss signing affect them in the slightest? Well it demonstrates why its rare for FAs to build a championship team. Even player who are terrific and worth their contract in terms of wins can't compete with younger players who, due to the CBA, will essentially always be many millions of dollars cheaper to put out on the floor. The approach of trying to land big time FAs basically only works when the max contract is well below their true value such as Lebron's or Dwight's contracts.

* The exception of course would be if signing Deron means a team also lands Dwight Howard because of the signing, or already has a surplus of talent who are exceeding their current contracts.

Free Agent Musings

2012-04-29T16:33:15Z

So I am a ~~regular~~ ~~semi-regular~~ ~~popular~~ normal contributor to game threads here. I have never made a FanPost. I feel I am a ~~good~~ ~~average~~ ~~awful~~ ~~Skip Bayless~~ decent writer and I wanted to contribute. So here are some Free Agents I am interested in for the Cavs.

This is obviously supposed to be realistic. Is Deron Williams a good player? Absolutely. Any chance of him coming here? Less than zero. Roy Hibbert is a nice center. He's staying in Indy. My knowledge base on how much a FA might cost us could be way off. So feel free to bash any of my awful suggestions.

Also, for some guys it might be a formality that they return to their teams. If so, I am oblivious to it.

My list, after "the jump"

Kirk Hinrich

After some good years in Chicago, has not played well in Atlanta. Made 8 mil for a 9.2 PER. His days as a starter are probably done. For less than MLE money, would make a nice backup to Kyrie, as well as adding another shooter. Also, I think stretches with a backcourt of him and Kyrie could work.

Omar Asik

Maybe the posterboy for affordable free agents. With Boozer and Noah locked up and Gibson part of their future, how much money can they give him? Will he ask for starters money despite on 2 career starts? Does he start here and force Tigger to the bench? Will someone way overpay for him?

Rudy Fernandez

Would come in and be our best wing, and is just entering his prime. His FT% and 3pt shooting help an otherwise ghastly FG% seem more efficient. If Denver chooses to pay Javale McGee, they might not be able to afford Rudy. Also, AC would have great in-game jokes with the Rudy-ND connection.

Brandon Rush

Both he and Nate Robinson had good years in Golen State (no D...get it?). Rush either underachieved in Indy, or had a great contract year. Given that he's a wing, he could be useful.

OJ Mayo

I am sure someone will ridiculously overpay him. If not, he's intriguing.

Kwame Brown

He's been traded for Caron Butler, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bogut in his career. Sign him and let the trade offers role in.

Ray Allen

So after we draft Beal, both John and Conrad will be happy.

Tristan Thompson and Patience with Big Men

2012-04-25T19:22:52Z

I got thinking last night about all the big men in the league that are considered above average. It made me wonder just how long it took them to get good. So what I'm gonna do it break down this list into 4 different category's in a very straight-forward way. What year was their 1st great year

1st year

There are only 2 really. Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol. They both averaged about 20 and 10 in their first year.

2nd year guys

Kevin Garnett (17/8)

Amare Stoudemire (13/8 to 20/9)

Carlos Boozer (10/7.5 to 15/8... Ended up with multiple 20/10 seasons too)

Greg Monroe (9.4/7.5 to 15/9.7)

Dwight Howard (12/10 to 15.8/12.5 and a whole lotta 20/10 seasons)

LaMarcus Aldridge (9/5 to 17.8/7.6)

Dirk Nowitzki (8.2/3.5 to 17.5/6.4)

Marc Gasol (11.9/7.4 to 14.6/9.3)

Then there are the 3rd/4th year players that were mostly taken later in the draft. It took em a while to progress and quite a few of them had some big question marks. This, I believe, will be the group Thompson could fall into.

David West (3.8/4.1 to 6.2/4.3 to 17.1/7.4)

Josh Smith (9.7/6.2 to 11.3/6.6 to 16.4/8.6)

Al Horford (10.1/9.7 to 11.5/9.3 to 14.2/9.9)

Paul Millsap (6.8/2.9 to 8.1/3.6 to 13.5/8.6... year 5 was 17.3/7.7)

Al Jefferson (6.7/4.4 to 7.9/5.0 to 16/10.9)

Kevin Love (11.1/9.1 to 14/7.2 to 20.2/10.7)

Zach Randolph (2.8/1.7 to 8.4/4.4 to 20/10.5)

Luis Scola (10.3/6.4 to 12.7/8.7 to 16.2/8.6)

David Lee (5.1/4.5 to 10.7/10.4 to 10.8/9.0 to 16/11.8 to 20.2/11.7)

Now I realize I did this during a boring class at school so the third and fourth years of guys' careers are harder to follow. If I had lots of time I'd make a neat little graph. As a starter, Thompson's averaged about the same types of numbers as most of these guys have. Even over the course of the season they're still pretty darn similar.

If he's gonna have a breakout year, I expect it to be in his third, maybe his fourth year. I'd also add that a lot of these guys have no desire to play defense, or it took them years to get the whole concept of team, or their motors suck. TT doesn't have any of those problems. If he can add a little bulk and a couple offensive moves, I wouldn't be surprised if he was averaging something like 15/10 by his 3rd or 4th year.

Sky's The Limit For Alonzo Gee?

2012-04-23T09:40:00Z

{Editor's note: Front page'd}

Hey everyone! This is my first post, so things may be a little shaky and I ask you to bear with me. Oh and these posts may come at weird times for a lot of you, seeing as I live in Australia. Any criticism, pointers and help is welcome and very much appreciated. Thanks guys!

via media.cleveland.com

ANYWAY, as pointed to by the title, this post is about Alonzo Gee, and particularly, what do you think his ceiling could be? I try to follow the Cavs as best I can, but it's a tad hard in Australia and that I'm at school whenever the games are on. In a nutshell, I really like Alonzo Gee, maybe it's partly due to the fact that he's an undrafted player that's been able to make it (even though it might be for the Cavs) or maybe that I see potential in him.

It's painfully obvious that Gee has impressive bouncability and athleticism, so he has some of the tools to be a wing. In addition, he has above average defending ability but what I'm worried about is whether he has the ability to contribute meaningfully on offense as well as his defense.

From my understanding, Gee can sort of shoot the ball but I haven't seen enough games to really judge it. I know all about the dunking and that, I've seen enough highlights to observe that side of things. Do you think Gee will need to work on his handling, or will playing next to Kyrie excuse him from needing to?

3G SMASH! (Feb 15, 2012) (via thehoopscene)

Attitude doesn't seem like much of an issue either and his work ethic is good, so I have no worries, it's just about talent and ability now.

So in conclusion, I have a couple of questions that need direct answering:

1) Will Alonzo Gee develop a good offensive set (or at least a good jumper) and will he need to work on his handle?

2) What exactly is the ceiling for Alonzo, and what sort of player (comparisons and such) do you see him developing into, if he does improve (or even regress) in his game?

Thanks heaps guys and hopefully you'll see a bit more of me around as I settle in, haha! Till next time, happy tanking Clevelanders.

An interesting article about Alonzo's origins and whatnot: "Cleveland Cavaliers' Alonzo Gee continuing a slow and steady rise in the NBA"

A "cavstheblog" post about Alonzo Gee: "Diamond in the Rough?…Alonzo Gee"

Draftwatch: Andrew Nicholson and Doron Lamb

2012-04-08T20:39:32Z

So here's a couple big guys that either I'm interested in. I was gonna do Festus Ezeli but haven't had any time to really do any research on him so I did a couple guys I've looked at more

Andrew Nicholson- 6'9 PF, 220 lb

Nicholson's a little old as he's a senior, but I've come to really like him and think that he's a bit underrated. He went into college weighing something like 185 and still being 6'9. Needless to say, he's put on muscle. He is a physics major (?!!?!?) who chose to got o ST. Bonaventure because of their new science facilities. Thankfully, he's not 100% nerd. In his 4 year college career his basketball IQ has improved tremendously as have his post moves. He started off only being able to dunk and now he's got what draftexpress.com calls a "very refined post game." He's even added a perimeter game too. He didn't shoot a 3 his first 2 years, then he shot 26% as a junior, and then 43% as a senior. His offense will be his biggest draw as he's very proficient on that end of the floor. Not to mention that he didn't start playing basketball until his junior year of highschool.

He's an average rebounder and not a very good defender though. Not to mention he's not all that large, though that can be helped. That is about all the bad I have to say and it can be done in 2 sentences

Where he fits: right on the bench in a Carl Landry/Jamison role when he was in Dallas role. He'd be a bench scorer if we don't draft a big before the very late 1st round. I'd hope that his defense and rebounding can be improved on. Alot of draft experts compare him to David West, which seems a bit of a stretch but Carl Landry or Jamison when he was good seems more realistic. He's not the kind of guy I'd ever want starting but off the bench he could really thrive, especially on a team that has no offense sitting on the bench

Doron Lamb- 6'5 SG, 205 lb (most recent measurements)

I also really like Lamb. If we ended up with Davis or MKG I'd love to land Lamb. He was Kentucky's leading scorer in the tournament who can drive and shoot very efficiently. He's got a nice little floater he uses in the paint, and shoots 47% (holy crap) from 3. He's even got a good mid-range game. He's probably not gonna be an elite scorer on the next level but I think he'll be one of those guys that can score in enough ways that defenses have to respect him, opening up the floor for the true scorers. He might even be able to play the bench scorer role like Jason Terry or JR Smith. He can even play PG if he's asked to relatively well.

On the defensive end he's not athletic enough to be an elite defender but he's dependable. He won't lock anyone down like Gee can but he's got good fundamentals, effort, and he understands where to force people into help defense. Overall, he's a dependable player who can help on both ends of the floor.

Where he fits: If we DO get Davis or MKG, we'll also really need a SG who isn't on AARP. I could see him starting or coming off the bench. If we don't trade up and get the other Lamb, Rivers, or Terrance Ross, I'd love to get this kid. He'll actually stretch the floor (unlike AARP), actually be able to drive(AARP), and actually be able to defend (unlike AARP). He's also just a sophomore, which means he's not 35, which means he's still got plenty of time to improve.

4 questions from an outsider.

2012-04-07T22:27:38Z

In full disclosure, I am a MN fan, but I am rooting for the Cavaliers a little since the South Beach incident. Back when Rubio was healthy, I was comparing him and Irving to see who had the better complete game and should win rookie of the year. Irving rated extraordinarily well on individual offense. Rubio's shooting was bordering on terrible, but he rated higher on passing and defense, so it was closer than you might think. Ultimately, I believe Irving will win rookie of the year by a wide margin, but my research uncovered a few things that provoked the following commentary and questions.

Kyrie Irving #2 of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Team Chuck holds up his MVP award during the BBVA Rising Stars Challenge part of the 2012 NBA All-Star Weekend at Amway Center on February 24, 2012 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.">

There are about 4 PGs that get regular starter minutes and score more efficiently(eFG%) than Kyrie. They are Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Stephen Curry and Ty Lawson. That is pretty good company to be in, especially for a rookie. With the shortened season and injuries, Irving has only faced Nash and Lawson(1 game each) this season. Yet somehow opposing point guards, the guys Kyrie guards, are scoring more efficiently than Irving.

I am truly curious if he looks better on defense than the statistics suggest. According to Synergy Sports, opposing players are shooting about 48.5% from 2 and 46.4% from 3 when they face Irving. There are zero guards that play 24+ minutes per game and shoot better than 46% from 3 this season. What does this say about his defense?

Phoenix Suns">

Question 1—Does Kyrie look like he is playing good defense and opposing players are just hitting a lot of difficult shots or does he have a lot to work on here?

I have only seen Irving play in the rookie vs. sophomore game, so I truly don’t know how he runs an offense. I saw someone on Fearthesword suggest he could be the next Chris Paul, who is one of the best at running an offense. Currently, Kyrie Irving is at an Assist/TO ratio of 1.733(just outside of the top 40 among qualified point guards, but still ahead of Russell Westbrook), while the worst season of Chris Paul’s career(rookie season), he was just over 3.33. Also, in Chris Paul’s worst season for steals, he recorded 1.84 steals/game. Irving is at 1.02 steals/game, but improved in March. As you can probably tell, I don’t find this to be a perfect comparison, but Kyrie is very young and didn’t even play much as a college freshman due to injury. On the positive side, he was close to 2 assists/TO in February and March after a very rough January. Irving is an offensive force for sure.

Question 2—Does Irving have the potential to be somewhat like Chris Paul or is he closer to the mid-point between Stephen Curry and Derrick Rose?

Although he does score incredibly efficiently for a young guard, his overall stats seem reminiscent of an all-star game in that he might be mainly focused on his own offense and not playing particularly solid defense. No doubt Kyrie can get better at defense, but this seems fair to some degree given the numbers in his short career.

In theory, I generally prefer point guards more interested in setting up the offense than scoring themselves, however, championships don’t often follow the top assist guys in recent history. When you score more efficiently than your teammates, one could argue that the team’s best interest is for you to take it yourself rather than pass the ball. However, in games Irving has played(46), the team has a winning record when he shoots 12 or fewer shots(7-5, including the great OKC win where he had 12 assists and only 1 TO). When he shoots more than 12 shots, the team is 9-25. When Irving has 7 assists or more, Cleveland has a .500 record. Of course, one might just infer that when Irving’s teammates play well and hit shots following his passes, the Cavs have a better chance at winning. Interestingly, when Sessions had 7 assists or more, the Cavs were 7-5.

Also of interest, Ramon Sessions and Kyrie Irving didn’t play together all that often, but when they did, the Cavaliers outscored their opponents overall on the season by a total of 21 points. Considering the Cavaliers are at -341 in point differential on the season, this seems significant. When the 2 of them played alongside Alonzo Gee, they outscored their opponents by 67 points in about 167 minutes together. While that is less than 4 total games of minutes together, that is better than +9 points per 24 minutes playing together.

Question 3—Was the lineup of Irving, Sessions and Gee vastly underutilized?

Sadly, Ramon Sessions and his reasonable contract are gone, so the team will not be able to continue to roll with that lineup. Quick side note—Sessions has been at 2.35 A/TO ratio or better in each season of his career other than the one where he was completely misused by Kurt Rambis(1.88). The Cavaliers will likely get a pick around #25 in the upcoming draft from the Lakers, so along with their own lottery pick, hopefully they can find someone else to provide valuable minutes alongside Irving.

Question 4—Is the draft pick worth it or should the Cavaliers have held onto Sessions to backup the PG spot and play several minutes per game(4th quarters?) alongside Irving and Gee?

While some might see this post as negative, I really just want to pose the questions and get honest feedback. Again, Kyrie is amazingly efficient for a young rookie guard. He is very impressive and was a pretty clear choice at #1. I suspect his defensive numbers will get better in the following seasons. I was just surprised by what I was seeing in the stats and wanted to get feedback from the good people of Fearthesword, who likely have invested a lot of minutes watching Irving and have a much better view of how he plays and how much potential he has.

If we don't win a higher pick, who do you want to move ahead of us?

2012-04-04T22:06:00Z

I've already made my decision and I'll explain why

I, like many people, like Bradley Beal and MKG. So I was thinking about who would pass on Beal, because only a crazy person would pass on MKG at this point. So I've narrowed my list down to these teams. I'll say what team, who they have that will cause them to pass on Beal, and who they'd take instead.

1. New Orleans - Eric Gordon - Andre Drummond / Thomas Robinson / Harrison Barnes / Perry Jones. They've got a franchise 2 and they're as shallow as we are so every other position is a need.

2. Sacramento - Tyreke Evans - Andre Drummond / Harrison Barnes. They've also got their 2 of the future with need of someone who can defend on the perimeter and down low.

3. Toronto - Demar Derozan - Drummond / Barnes / T. Robinson. They've got holes. They could use a real center, not that 7 foot shooting guard they've got. OR a PF who can rebound. Or a SF who can do more than wear a uniform and get paid to suck super hard

4. Utah - Alec Burks - Barnes / Damian Lillard. They've got 4 guys in their frontcourt rotation and a new shooting guard in Alec Burks who's gotten better and better as the seasons gone on. They need a PG and a SF

5. Milwaukee - Monta Ellis - Same as everyone else. They just traded for Ellis. Do you jump the ship on him already when he's been tearing it up for them?

I wanted to put Detroit on here but I couldn't justify that. Rodney Stuckey just ain't that good. So unless one of these teams wants to trade their shooting guard, they'll probably pass on Beal. Thus, I feel like dropping to 5 isn't such bad thing as long as one of these moves ahead of us.

Poll: If the Cleveland Cavaliers Were to Draft Second

2012-04-03T23:00:27Z

Okay so there's only 16 or so games left in the season and I'm thinking draft time. I have a situation to propose, so I can get an idea of who this blog wants as a whole. Say, that when that lottery goes down, the Cavs get the #2 spot.

And then whoever has the #1 takes Anthony Davis. Who do you want now? We need a wing and a quality big man. Andre Drummond doesn't interest me a whole lot. Barnes could be amazing. Kidd-Gilchrist already has some chemistry with Irving, playing in high school together. Beal could be the next Ray Allen. I admittedly don't know much about Jeremy Lamb at all. So... who is it for you? I'd give my advantage to MKG.

Poll

Hypothetical: The Cleveland Cavaliers have the #2 pick and Anthony Davis was selected with the #1. Who do you want now?

1. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

122 votes

2. Harrison Barnes

14 votes

3. Andre Drummond

13 votes

4. Bradley Beal

37 votes

5. Jeremy Lamb

5 votes

191 votes | Poll has closed

An alternative theory to the Star Nucleus Theory

2012-03-31T03:36:23Z

There has been a lot of talk on FTS lately about the need to draft correctly so the team is set with, at least, one other star caliber player to pair with Kyrie Irving. The talk has been about the merits of tanking the rest of the season to improve the teams draft stock and secure a potential stud player via the draft, such as Bradley Beal or Anthony Davis. This is a sound strategy. Small market teams like Oklahoma City have proven that this is an excellent strategy when executed with perfect precision.

But is this the only way? As a counter argument, I present you the curious case of the Denver Nuggets.

Is Denver at the top of the standings out West? No. Is Denver being talked about as a potential championship contender right now? No. So why do I think they present a viable alternative model to consider? Because it has worked before, is working now, and can continue to work.

Name the stars who make the nucleus of that team. I dare you. Please. I'll settle for one. Can you?

I know I can't. Now, this isn't a knock on any of the players on that team. Because, in fact every single player on that team is very good. But none of them are players on par with Kobe, Durant, Westbrook, or any of those unnamed players in Miami. This is a team built not on star players that take over a game and always make the big, game clinching shots. This is a team that is built on an incredibly deep and diverse rotation and bench. That is how they win their games.

And it worked. Last season the Nuggets had the eighth best record in the NBA and won over 60% of their games. They lost their first round match up with, of course, the Thunder, but that didn't mean that their model was ineffective. This was a team that everyone had left for dead after they traded their sole star player, Carmelo Anthony, to New York for a collection of draft picks and players. When in fact, the collection of players is what made this team so effective. By essentially combining the benches of the 2011 Knicks and Nuggets, Denver was able to form that incredibly deep, talented, and diverse rotation. They could go small and run with a collection of skilled guards, wings, and forwards or they could go big and bang with a collection of talented big men. And in the event of an injury, they are able to adapt and simply plug in the next man.

So why still call it a success after a first round playoff loss? Because look at what it has set up the franchise to do. Typically, because they are so deep, Denver plays at a fast and high scoring pace. They aren't the Pheonix Suns of Nash and Amare, but this is a team that likes to push the tempo and put up points in a hurry. Their collection of skilled guards and wings, like Ty Lawson, Aaron Afflalo, Danillo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Andre Miller, and Rudy Fernandez allows them to do just that. And they currently have top level defenders in Javale McGee, Kenneth Faried, Chris Anderson, and Timofey Mozgov to dominate down low. Basically this a morphing team that can drop the points and bring the D.

Their loss in the playoffs could be looked at many ways. It could be a sign that you need big stars to win. It could mean that this team is headed for failure. Or, it could mean that this is a team that simply needs more tweaking. And that is what Denver has done this season. They essentially swapped point guards, Andre Miller and Raymond Felton, with Portland in the off-season. And then, if there was a player that could be considered the teams star, it was Nene Hilario. But he was moved a few weeks ago to Washington for the mercurial and talented McGee. And then, in the middle of the season they added Wilson Chandler, back from exile in China.

Will these moves payoff? At this time it is hard to say. This team could fall flat on its face once again in the playoffs. Or they could prove that their deep rotation is a huge advantage and push for a championship. Either is possible. When you have the ability to swap your entire lineup like a line change in hockey, and continue to push the pace and wear out your opponents, anything is possible. Though this is not a popular style in the NBA, numerous college teams have gone far with this style and shown that it can work.

And what if they do fall short again. Then what? Do they keep tinkering and hope for the best? Sure that is a strong possibility. Or, they could decide to blow it all up essentially and use the picks and players they have stockpiled to bring in star players from other teams via trade. The impressive thing about this is that they could do this, and not even drain their roster of talent. They could trade for one, maybe even two superstars and still have a strong, talented bench and role players to support them. Instead of trading for players at positions that they need, they can trade for players that they want. They don't have a gun against their head forcing a move, they have options.

Surprisingly, they aren't the first team in recent years to take on this method of stockpiling talent in multiple players over stars. People seem to forget the deep bench Portland has had in recent years. If it weren't for the bad luck of Brandon Roy's knees that team would have been running in the playoffs on a very similar model. And when things didn't work out, they simple traded away a player or two for draft picks and young talent. Few doubt that they won't be back in the playoffs in a year or two.

******************************************************************************************************************************

So, what does this all mean to the Cavilers? Am I implying that they shouldn't tank and get the best possible player with the best possible pick early in the draft? No. That would do wonders for this team. What I am saying, is that this team shouldn't look at this draft as an all or nothing adventure. Not everything relies on that first pick in the draft. With proper drafting and trading of players, and intelligent free agency moves, this team could position itself to win in other ways besides the big-three, triangle star model. As they say, there is more than one way to skin a cat.

Poll

Which method of building a perennial championship contender do you prefer?

Stockpiling Talent in Multiple Players/Picks (Denver, Portland Model)

8 votes

Drafting for the Stars (Oklahoma City Model)

22 votes

Kill Lebron James

19 votes

49 votes | Poll has closed