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NBA Draft 2011: Pre-Tournament Update

Before the 'March Madness' begins thought I would give everyone an idea of what the lottery picks and the draft are looking like right now. The Cavaliers are still sitting a top with the best chances to land the #1 overall pick. While our pick from he Clippers is giving The Cavaliers the 8th best set of odds. Depending on how the tournament plays out, we should know for sure who the Cavaliers will be drafting.

Cavaliers worst overall record is at least given them one thing. The best chances in the NBA Lottery to land the #1 pick. With the lottery system the Cavaliers have a 25% chance at the 1st overall pick, but protected enough to not slide past the #4 pick. The break down for the Cavaliers chances are as follows: 25% for the1st overall pick, 21.5% 2nd, 17.8% 3rd and a 35.7% chance for the 4th pick.

With Clippers pick in hand the Cavaliers have an extra opportunity to get a top 10 pick. Currently the Clippers have the 8th worst record in the NBA. If the Clippers were to finish there it would give the Cavaliers an extra 2.8% chance to obtain the 1st overall pick. As well as 3.3% for the 2nd and 3.9% for the 3rd. With the Clippers pick at 8th worst it gives them the best chase for the 8th overall pick with a 72.4% and then a 16.8% overall for the 9th pick.. The worst that could slide is to pick 10 with a .8% chance.

With Chad Ford's 'Mock Lottery' simulation, I did 10 simulations which gave the following results:

70% of the time I received this:

1st Overall - Duke PG Kyrie Irving
8th Overall - Kentucky SF Terrence Jones


2nd Overall - Duke PG Kyrie Irving
4th Overall - UNC SF Harrison Barnes


2nd Overall - Duke PG Kyrie Irving
8th Overall - Kentucky SF Terrence Jones

I'm a big fan of Blue Devil Kyrie Irving, he has 'star PG' potential and is the best true Point in the draft. Early on the season Irving had a toe injury that has taken him out of the picture for the majority of the season. When he is playing for Duke THIS is what he is capable of. There is rumor he may make a comeback this season during the tournament and if he does (and chooses to come out this season of course) be set for the top pick of the NBA draft.
*UPDATE* Coach K has announced Kyrie WILL play in round one of the Tournament.

Looking at the 2nd most chosen player in the simulation Terrence Jones SF of Kentucky, I can't help but get a positive feeling still smirking about the fact we took a top 10 pick from the Clippers. The AP's 'SEC Newcomer of the year' has a lot of potential and can make a huge impact on the Cav's by adding some serious talent to the Small Forward position. Check out HERE to see the damage he's been doing at Kentucky.

The other Small Forward is late bloomer Harrison Barnes. Barnes came into this season as the #1 freshman in the nation and was supposed to be the true 'Superstar' of this years draft. For the first half of the seasons questions were raised if Barnes would be a bust, but in the second half of the season Barnes ignited. At one point in the ACC tourney Barnes dropped 40 points against Clemson. This kid has been on fire for the past few weeks check it out HERE to see what he can do. A great tournament performance from him could send him into top 3 picks.