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NBA Draft Math: 42.6% Is the Magic Number of the Cavaliers

This is what we have a 42.6% chance of getting.
This is what we have a 42.6% chance of getting.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are easily the team with the best chance to jump from lottery dweller to championship contender if their pick in the NBA Draft this summer ends up being top 3. Most Draft Experts rate Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as the player who have the best chances of being key contributors to turning a franchise around.

The Cavaliers have a 42.6% chance of landing a top 3 pick, while a 23.8% chance of picking fourth and (this gets scary) a 29.0% chance of having the fifth pick. While those picks would allow the Cavaliers to select a nice player, it wouldn't quite be someone who could make that huge difference that is needed to really win, not just be 8 seed in the East next year.

Tristan Thompson has a chance to be a player who consistently sits on the fringe of the All-Star game every year for a long time. Kyrie Irving is a slam dunk future multiple time All-Star.

How about tossing Anthony Davis into a lineup with those guys? No other team in the lottery can match that combo. Toss Beal or Kidd-Gilchrist in for Davis and you still get a combination that is worthy of some serious praise.

While I absolutely covet Davis, I'm predicting the Cavaliers select 2nd due to it being destiny for the player Conrad has been all over for the entire season, Bradley Beal, to fall into the hands of Chris Grant come June 28th.

For all those people who ripped us who encouraged tanking, take note that Sacramento (22-44 to our 21-45) has just over a 25% chance of ending up with a top 3 pick.

42.%& > 25.5% and that is a huge gap.

Do the Cavs need a top 3 pick to supplement Thompson and Irving? Where is your cutoff line for where the Cavs need to be picking to satisfy you?