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NBA Finals Preview: Commenter roundtable, part one

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports


Fear The Sword Finals Preview


1) Injuries to Kyrie/Lebron/Klay. How much of LBJ's shooting woes were due to nagging injuries, and how much can we hope/expect them to be fixed with a week off? How close to 100% can we hope from Kyrie? How would Klay missing time early in the series affect the match up?


Ben (xfl2001fan): Honestly, I don't know that LBJ will get his shooting form back even with rest. He might get hot for a game, but I wouldn't expect any more than that. Kyrie, I would guess will be at 95% but will probably play like 75% until he gets confidence in his knee/brace. The week off will help, but it might not help enough as they are getting plenty of rest too.

Klay Thompson being out would do huge wonders for our teams chances to steal a game (or two) in the Bay Area. Not only is he their second leading scorer, he's their 2nd best shooter (both in volume and percentage of shots made). There's a HUGE drop off in shooting after him and that is something we can exploit. If that happens, we put Shump on Curry to hound him all game (when Curry sits, he sits) and let the rest of the team feast on turnovers that are likely to occur. Their spacing goes to crap without him as they don't really have any other threat.

Alex (EVR1022): Kyrie's health is a big factor in how we approach this series. His floor spacing is vital for us, but his ability to create is the x-factor. I think this will prove to be true: To the extent that he can create, to the same extent we can afford to use LeBron to guard Stephen Curry. I don't think LeBron can be the full-time PG and spend more than a few crunch time plays guarding Curry. But if Kyrie can be that primary ball handler about 1/3 of the time, then we can likewise use LeBron on Curry about 1/3 of the time. I'd say Kyrie would need to be about 85% or 90% to do this. I fully expect that to be the case at the beginning of the series, but my concern is whether he can stay at that level all series while playing big minutes against a physical opponent.

I think LBJ's shooting woes stemmed primarily from fatigue, though the nagging injuries certainly haven't helped. Against Chicago he had a 38.4% usage rate and a 46.9% assist rate. Against Atlanta that increased to a 39.6% usage rate and a 52.2% assist rate. The time off is bound to do him much good, as long as the huge workload didn't cause any major damage. That said, we have to be prepared for the possibility that he will be more dual threat than triple threat in the Finals. At the very least, GSW will make him prove the jumper is working before they respect it.


Tom (Bacon2): If Klay is out then Barnes is going to have to play 40 mpg, and we are going to see if Livingston/Barbosa can actually handle real mins. That would be very tough for GS as their offense is really reliant on making 3s, and their bench guys don't have skill sets that offset that loss (like oreb, drawing FTs).

Lebron's poor shooting has me worried. If his back is nagging him and it is throwing off his outside shot, that is a huge deal. Being able to score reasonably well with lower effort possessions is important for what is going to be a draining series. Kyrie being able to penetrate and score is a must to beat GS due to the Kyrie/Lebron PnR (more on that later).

Sweeping ATL and getting every min of rest they can for Lebron/Kyrie was huge.

Josh (JoshVS): I think LeBron is a very smart player. He knows his jumper hasn’t been going in, and was actively working to get it to go in game one. I think his second quarter shot chart (from game four in Atlanta) really shows that he’s being intentional about it. Here’s the data on his second quarter shots:

  1. 11:40, jumper from 18 feet, made basket.

  2. 10:52, jumper from 22 feet, basically in a line with the first one, made basket.

  3. He then took and made 3 of 4 shots at the rim. At this point he’s feeling warmed up.

  4. 5:01, missed three

  5. 1:10, missed three

Based on all of that, I think he intentionally was backing his way toward that three point shot, trying to get a feel. I think we can expect similar results against the Warriors: if it’s not falling, he’ll methodically work inside out to find the range. If it doesn’t happen, he’ll stay in the paint. All that to say, I’m not particularly worried about his three point shot not falling. It’s obviously of benefit to the Cavs if it does, but he’s smart enough to play around it.

As to his injuries, they may be playing a factor into it, they may not. His accuracy hasn’t seemed to increase or decrease significantly with fatigue, though, so I doubt that it has much to do with it. More likely, I think it’s "good" game planning by the Bulls and Hawks, trying to limit any kind of open look for LeBron, and make the rest of the team beat them. After all, it was obvious Kyrie was hurting, and making the Cavs roleplayers play like stars to beat you doesn’t, on the surface, sound like a bad strategy. Unfortunately for them, JR, Shump, TT, and even James Jones managed to play like stars because defenses were so keyed in on LeBron. Even if they’re not using a ton of possessions, the top three most efficient scorers remaining in the playoffs (by points per possession) are JR, Tristan, and JJ. Their usage totals only slightly below Curry’s by himself, while all posting higher efficiencies. That’s incredible.


Alex #2 (Gazeller): I’m not all that concerned about LeBron’s shooting from distance. Yes, he has a variety of small ailments, but even with his bumps and bruises he averaged 30 points in 38 minutes in the conference finals on career high playoff usage - 36.4% over the three series. The rest can only help him gear up for the last few games. As long as he can still post up Green, Barnes, Iggy, and Klay, LeBron is sure to be effective.

As the others have mentioned, The Kyrie and Klay injuries will have a huge influence on the series. I’m expecting Thompson to be available for Game 1 even if he isn’t at 100%. If he’s still rusty from his concussion, that will allow more defensive attention to be paid to Curry and the other complementary scorers. With Kyrie still hobbled by his knee, having a less-threatening player to hide him on would bail the Cavs out of a potentially tough situation. Barbosa and Livingston aren’t in the same universe offensively as Curry or Thompson, and Kyrie won’t have to expend as much energy defending either of them.

For better or worse, Kyrie’s ability to stay on the court without hemorrhaging points on defense is huge for the Cavs’ chances. Even injured, Irving has shown he can be effective on the offensive end as a spot-up shooter who can still maneuver his way into the paint. With Kyrie on the court in the ECF, the team had an 11.3 Net Rating. The sample size is small there, but it still shows the team is much better when he can play. The more minutes Kyrie can play instead of King Delly, the greater the chance of a Cavalier victory.

Mike (WitMi): I think this question is very difficult to answer without know how badly LBJ is injured. LBJ is half cyborg and I see him turn his ankle 90 degrees one minute, then bouncing off of that same injured ankle after sinking a game winning dagger the next. I think the lower extremity injuries have bothered his jumper and he may not be getting the same lift he is accustomed to. I think the full-week off will do wonders for his shot. That week off allows him to review tape of his shooting and he can get in the gym and correct and small problems or bad habits he may have accrued.

I remain hopeful that we will see a close to 100% Kyrie Irving and I think Kyrie’s health is pivotal to winning the series. Steph curry has not faced a point guard in the playoffs who will really wear him out on the other side of the ball. We desperately need Kyrie Irving to make Curry work on defense and to force him to expend energy there. Curry more or less had a free pass defending a badly injured Mike Conley and an old Jason Terry. The games Conley managed to make Steph work on defense the worse he seemed to perform on offense. We really need Kyrie to be aggressive on offense and to keep Curry thinking about the defensive side of the ball so he can’t only focus on offense.

If Klay misses any time GSW will be at a distinct disadvantage as they have no one on their roster that can replace him. Spreading the floor with Klay is essential to the GSW offense functioning successfully. If Klay sits, that means the Cavs can stick Kyrie on his replacement and let Shumpert try to slow down Curry. Shump has been outstanding so far in the playoffs and may be long and fast enough to bother Curry (I admit bothering Curry may not be possible).


2) GSW's "weaknesses" and how well the Cavs can exploit them.


Ben (xfl2001fan): Turnovers might be an achilles heel that we can take advantage of with Golden State. Bogut has a 23.9 TOV% (though only on 11.1 USG). Draymond Green has a 18.3 TOV% as well. Shaun Livingston has been hot and cold for them (per commenters over at Golden State of Mind) and has a 19.6 TOV%. Their Top 8 minutes played guys, only Iggy doesn't have at least a 10% TOV. For us, we only have 3 guys over that number (Lebron - 13.5, Mozgov - 15.8 and Delly - 17.8). Of course, they do have an edge in the AST:TOV ratio (1.73 to 1.69) but we go Iso more than they do anyways.

We'll have a much tougher time rebounding the ball against Golden State (Bogut has a 19.3 TRB% and Green's is at 15.7). Their Wings are also rebounding mostly on par with our guys (with Lebron being the exception having a 14.2% TRB). Bogut is their only big minutes guy who grabs "a lot" of offensive boards, which should help us, and he's only getting 10.9% of them (not too far below what Mozgov 12.3 and TT 13.3 have been getting) As a team, they have grabbed more rebounds, but looking at the guys most likely to get minutes, it's a lot closer. In fact, we have the narrowest of rebounding edge (605-601) over their Top 8 guys. That edge goes away if we add a 9th guy to each teams roster.

Their Free Throw Rate isn't any spectacular. They've got a .2486 FTR. They've actually attempted less free throws than we have despite taking nearly 130 more shot attempts. They foul more than we do, which might help our .3211 FTR.


Josh (JoshVS): For this one, I’m going to assume a healthy Klay. If that’s the case, the only weakness the Warriors really have is that they can’t play big enough while they’re playing small. That may sound like a weird statement, but here’s what I mean: if they play Dray at center, they have no one who can effectively guard LeBron. If they play Dray at the four, they have no one who can effectively keep TT off the glass while playing effective defense against P&Rs. Bogut isn’t bad, but he can’t run with TT, and we’d probably see a lot of alley oops generated. Bogut doesn’t scare anyone on offense, so I’m not worried about his size advantage on TT. Basically, they can’t match up with our front court particularly well, no matter what they do. They simply don’t have the combination of size and speed we do. I’d even take Mozgov over Bogut. However, their backcourt (again, with a healthy Klay), is legitimately frightening, and presents some major matchup problems for us.


Alex #2 (Gazeller): I completely agree with the TT situation. Athletically, he’s far superior to Bogut and Green, so he’ll have opportunities to make an impact regardless of who they put on him. On defense his skill set matches up well against Draymond’s strengths and can possibly neutralize him like he did against Millsap.

Also, the Warriors haven’t shown they have a guy who can effectively guard LeBron. In February, LeBron was able to bully his way into his preferred scoring areas against every defender they threw at him. If the Cavs want to win, LeBron needs to play like LeBron, and despite the Warriors plethora quality wing defenders, none have the ideal physical qualities to slow James down.

Lastly, the Warriors don’t have any consistent offensive threat outside of Steph and Klay. While those two are good enough that it usually doesn’t matter, shutting down one of them puts a major handicap on their offense as a whole. Counting on David Lee or Draymond Green to compensate a lackluster performance by Klay Thompson certainly swings the odds in Cleveland’s favor.


Alex (EVR1022): Three weaknesses stand out to me:

A: They don’t get to the line often. Despite playing at the fastest pace of any NBA team, they were #26 in total free throw attempts. Moreover, the Cavaliers were the best team in the NBA at keeping teams off the line. This bodes well for keeping our short rotation out of foul trouble. It’s particularly helpful for Timofey Mozgov.

2: Their opponents get to the line often. While it was difficult to make shots against the Warrior’s defense this year, it was not overly difficult to get to the free throw line. The Rockets just earned 165 FTA in 5 games against them, an average of 33 per game. The last time we had 33 FTA in a game was when Boston hacked us to death in that infamous game four. Bogut and Green, in particular, just don’t feel right if they end the game with less than 4 fouls. They’ll end the postseason #1 and #2 in total PF. The only question is, which one will come out on top?

D: Front court scoring. Green has averaged 14.0 PPG on 52.4 true shooting this postseason. Barnes has averaged 11.3 PPG on 53.1 true shooting. Bogut has averaged 5.3 PPG on 56.5 true shooting. The three of them have combined for 30.6 PTS, 9.1 AST, and 5.7 TOV per game. LeBron James has averaged 27.6 PTS, 8.3 AST, and 4.4 TOV per game. These guys all start for Golden State, and it’s very possible LeBron will outproduce them all in this series.

Mike (WitMi): Finals teams will rarely have giant glaring weaknesses. Teams capable of making it to the final series are almost always well rounded and able to adapt to a number of different adverse circumstances. I think a better way to phrase this question is "What can the Cavs do to diminish GSW’s strengths?"

I think a lot of GSW’s quality depth and role players are going to see diminishing returns vs a team like the Cavs. Players like Andre Iguodala are normally incredibly valuable bench pieces vs most teams, but will be marginally effective vs the Cavs. Iggy is simply not big, strong, or fast enough to guard LeBron James anymore. At 6’5 he still has quick hands but he stands no chance without help if LeBron takes him into the post. He may be able to succeed in face guarding him on the perimeter, but LBJ can quickly adapt and lean on Kyrie to handle the primary ball-handling duties. Iggy is a FANTASTIC defender for skill-based players like James Harden, but he can no longer match the physicality of players like LeBron.

I believe you will see a similar issue with Draymond Green. Draymond is simply not big, fast or strong enough to guard LeBron and LeBron will bat him on the perimeter and in the post. Even if you do put Draymond on LeBron, TT will abuse Lee or Barnes inside on the boards. I also don’t see Draymond being effective offensively at all with TT on him. Draymond is a legit combo forward, he’s not a tweener. He is usually too strong for slighter stretch 4s and too fast for bigger lumbering players. He can stand on the perimeter and beat opposing bigs off the dribble or take smaller or similar sized players into the post and abuse them there. The problem vs the Cavs is that Draymond is not faster than TT, he’s not stronger than TT, and he’s giving up probably 4 inches on him. Draymond is going to have real problems with TT on him and TT is likely going to make him a complete non-factor on offense unless Draymond can get out in transition.

The only Weakness I can see on GSW is their inability to get to the rim in the half-court. The Dubs really rely on transition baskets and a quick tempo to get open shots. GSW plays outside-outside, meaning they don’t always try to collapse the defense to get open 3s. They mainly rely on Steph’s preternatural ability to hit 3s from anywhere on the court. If the Cavs can limit that some, how else do they score? They don’t have penetrators or traditional post-up big men so they can’t really collapse defenses. This is what phil Jackson was talking about in his tweets,. Teams like Miami and the Spurs try to get into the lane and get layups first, this action creates secondary actions that lead to open 3s. The Warrior’s don’t have the assets to do this, they uses outside passing to get outside shots and the occasional back-cut to get baskets around the rim. I don’t think it’s enough, more on this later but it’s critical the Cavs prevent transition baskets.


Tom (Bacon2):Size- more on this later, but Gasol/Randolph combined for ~36/18/6 on 52% TS.

Secondary creator- Curry is the only guy that consistently penetrates and gets to the rim. Without that Bogut is close to worthless offensively. Not much else, but Alex has a good point above about FTs.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on FearTheSword.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff at FearTheSword

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