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There’s no such thing as a sure thing in the NBA. When the Cleveland Cavaliers traded for the first round pick from the Brooklyn Nets they probably thought it would end up higher than it did.
The Nets were as bad as you would have expected, winning just 28 games. 28 wins would have got you fourth best lotto odds in the 2017 draft, but in Tankopalooza 2018, it’s only good enough for the eight best lotto odds.
Not to point the finger at the Cavs, but their loss to the Nets early in the season proved to be the difference between sixth and eighth in the lotto odds. Which is pretty on-brand in a frustrating season.
So what does all of this mean for the Cavs? Well, they now have a 2.8 percent chance at the first overall pick in the draft, and a 9.9 percent chance at the pick landing in the top three.
We won’t know where the team will pick until May 15th, when the draft lottery is held in Brooklyn, New York. What the team does with the pick, wherever it lands, is still up in the air.
Odds are the pick will be shopped around the draft in an effort to keep LeBron James. Last season Jimmy Butler and a first round pick were traded for Zach Lavine (with a torn ACL), Kris Dunn and the seventh overall pick. With this being such a deep and talented draft, especially in comparison to last year, the pick should still have a lot of value on the market.