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Losing LeBron James means the Cavaliers won’t be as good next season. Losing the best player in the world (and maybe ever) makes that unavoidable. But if just released over-under win totals hold true, Cleveland will be one of the worst teams in the league for the 2018-19 season.
As released by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, the Cavs’ over-under win total for the 2018-19 season is 30.5. That is the sixth-lowest total in the league overall and the fourth-worst total in the Eastern Conference:
2018-19 overall NBA over-under win totals
| Team | Win total |
|---|---|
| Team | Win total |
| Golden State Warriors | 62.5 |
| Boston Celtics | 57.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 54.5 |
| Houston Rockets | 54.5 |
| Toronto Raptors | 54.5 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 50.5 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 48.5 |
| Utah Jazz | 48.5 |
| Denver Nuggets | 47.5 |
| Indiana Pacers | 47.5 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 46.5 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 45.5 |
| Washington Wizards | 44.5 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 44.5 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 43.5 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 |
| Miami Heat | 41.5 |
| Detroit Pistons | 37.5 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 35.5 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 35.5 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 34.5 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 34.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 32.5 |
| Orlando Magic | 31.5 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 30.5 |
| New York Knicks | 29.5 |
| Phoenix Suns | 28.5 |
| Chicago Bulls | 27.5 |
| Sacramento Kings | 25.5 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 23.5 |
2018-19 over-under win totals - Eastern Conference only
| Team | Win total |
|---|---|
| Team | Win total |
| Boston Celtics | 57.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 54.5 |
| Toronto Raptors | 54.5 |
| Indiana Pacers | 47.5 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 46.5 |
| Washington Wizards | 44.5 |
| Miami Heat | 41.5 |
| Detroit Pistons | 37.5 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 35.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 32.5 |
| Orlando Magic | 31.5 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 30.5 |
| New York Knicks | 29.5 |
| Chicago Bulls | 27.5 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 23.5 |
The Cavs would benefit from finishing around 30.5 wins and among the league’s worst teams. It would not be as successful as the franchise might hope, but it would allow Cleveland to keep the top-10 protected pick it owes the Hawks for at least another year. And nabbing another lottery talent to pair with Collin Sexton and Cedi Osman would not be bad for the Cavs’ long-term hopes.
But it is also possible that the Cavs will be better than their over-under total suggests. For one, they play in the weaker conference. Second, the team has not made moves this summer that indicate they plan on losing a lot of games. It started with re-signing Kevin Love and extended to signing David Nwaba and trading for Sam Dekker and not (yet) trading away all of the veteran pieces on the roster. The Cavs may be trying to develop young talent — and both Nwaba and Dekker are players the Cavs will work to develop — but they also kept their one All-Star. Actions speak louder than words and Cleveland is clearly not tanking. If Love is healthy, and the young talent plays well, the Cavs could be in the hunt for a playoff spot this season. In the East, it’s a realistic outcome.