FanPost

Basically Every Plausible Trade Scenario for JR Smith's Contract

"There are some really accomplished players in this draft and we’re going to go deep like we always do and find somebody for the Cavaliers that embodies what we’re about: Attitude, work ethic and someone that really wants to play for the Cavaliers.[1]"

Kobi Altman has made clear, as he should, that the cavaliers are looking beyond the disappointing #5 pick to find much-needed talent in this year’s draft. Currently possessing picks #5 and #26 (via Houston in the Brandon Knight trade), the Cavaliers must scour all strata of first-round talent to nail their picks. However, the Cavs are in desperate need of high-level talent. While gems can be found late in the first round, these picks rarely amount to more than role players. Using the best salary reducing asset in the league right now, the contract of JR Smith, as well as their willingness to take on future salary, the Cavaliers should make a strong push to move into or add an additional lottery pick before the start of the 2019 draft.

But making trades in the NBA is easier said than done. Let’s consider a few things before making our proposals.

Current Cavalier contracts expiring after 2019-20 season (rounded to the nearest thousand:

All contract figures in this article were obtained from Basketball-reference.com[2]

JR Smith $15,680,000 (guaranteed for only 3,870,000 until June 30)

Tristan Thompson $18,539,000

Brandon Knight $15,644,000

Jordan Clarkson $13,437,000

John Henson $9,732,000

Matthew Dellavedova $9,608,000

Cedi Osman $2,907,000

Ante Zizic $2,282,000 (restricted in 20-21 for $3,872,000)

Future Salary Cap Expectations

Projected 19-20 Salary Cap: $109,000,000; Tax line: $132,000,000[3]

Projected 20-21 Salary Cap: $118,000,000; Tax Line: $143,000,000[4]

Cavaliers Current Guaranteed Salary

Current Guaranteed Salary 2019-20: $134,221,452

Current Guaranteed Salary 2020-21: $51,873,186

2019-20 NBA Rookie Salary[5] * First round picks can sign for as much as 120% and as little as 80% of the rookie scale.

Courtesy RealGm.com

Pick

1st Year Salary

2nd Year Salary

1

$8,120,700

$8,526,900

2

$7,265,800

$7,629,200

3

$6,524,900

$6,851,000

4

$5,882,800

$6,177,000

5

$5,327,300

$5,593,500

6

$4,838,500

$5,080,400

7

$4,417,000

$4,638,000

8

$4,046,500

$4,248,800

9

$3,719,500

$3,905,600

10

$3,533,500

$3,710,300

11

$3,357,000

$3,524,700

12

$3,189,100

$3,348,600

13

$3,029,600

$3,181,200

14

$2,878,400

$3,022,200

15

$2,734,100

$2,870,700

16

$2,597,500

$2,727,500

17

$2,467,500

$2,591,000

18

$2,344,400

$2,461,500

19

$2,238,700

$2,350,700

20

$2,149,000

$2,256,500

21

$2,063,100

$2,166,200

22

$1,980,700

$2,079,600

23

$1,901,500

$1,996,700

24

$1,825,600

$1,916,800

25

$1,752,500

$1,839,900

26

$1,694,300

$1,779,000

27

$1,645,300

$1,727,500

28

$1,635,300

$1,717,200

29

$1,623,300

$1,704,500

30

$1,611,700

$1,692,300

So what does all of this information tell us? First, the Cavs are more stressed financially than one might think given their on-court performance this past year. Given that the team is nowhere near contending, and given the fact that Dan Gilbert has paid $130 million in luxury tax payments between 2016 and 2018[6] the team is unlikely to dive deep into the luxury tax for draft compensation. Clearly, the Cavs are not in a position to add significant 2019-20 salary. That being said, Gilbert's reported willingnes to pay the tax in order to accumulate assets is commendable, and not something most ownership groups would be willing to undertake. The team is already, with only 11 contracts on the books, over the projected tax line. They can however, take on a significant amount of 2020-21 salary. Clearing two years of bad salary is something teams may be willing to pay a premium for.

Given the above criteria, let’s look at some possible trade opportunities for the Cavaliers, and address the likelihood and cost/benefit of each potential transaction. In alphabetical order:

Atlanta Hawks

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Pick 8

$4,047,000

$4,249,000

Pick 10

$3,534,000

$3,710,000

Total Incoming

$ 7,581,000

$7,959,000

Atlanta Receives

Pick 5

$5,327,000

$5,594,000

Total Incoming

$ 5,327,000

$5,594,000

Cavs Salary Change

$ 2,254,000

$ 2,365,000

Atlanta Salary Change

$ (2,254,000)

$ (2,365,000)

Sike. Before we get into the JR Smith contract conversation I first want to discuss a trade that makes a ton of sense for both teams. Atlanta currently has 6 selections in the 2019 Draft including the two lottery picks above as well as pick #17, recently acquired from the Brooklyn Nets[7]. Already a young team, it is unlikely that the Hawks would be eager to add 6 rookies to a team trying to develop its current young talent. According to The Athletic,

‘"…several executives around the league cited the Hawks, Celtics, Nets and the 76ers as teams looking to unload at least one of their draft picks on the trade market." This jives with Schlenk’s statement in early May that the Hawks "probably don’t want to add five rookies to the team" and, from a common sense standpoint, this adds up through that lens."[8]

Now that Atlanta has acquired yet another first, the Hawks seem to be a team aggressively attempting to move up in the draft. An interesting option for them, then, would be to consolidate their lottery picks in a trade to the Cavaliers to move up and add a high potential wing to pair with the talented trio of Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, and John Collins. A player along the lines of a Jarrett Culver, DeAndre Hunter, or a Cam Reddish would fit nicely and add some sorely needed defensive talent to their wing rotation. They would then be able to add another project with the 17th. Also, don’t be surprised if they sell some of their second rounders or draft and stash players to bring along later in their process.

This trade would also be beneficial to the Cavaliers. Giving up the higher pick hurts, but it allows them to stockpile desperately needed young talent and get ‘more bites at the apple,’ At this point in the draft, the Cavaliers would look at two players such as Reddish, Kevin Porter Jr., Jackson Hayes, Bol Bol, and Nassir Little. Higher risk players who still offer tremendous upside. It would also only cost the Cavaliers just over 1.3 million is extra salary to do so.

BOSTON CELTICS

There are two similar but importantly distinct trade options for Cleveland involving Boston, both involving Gordon Hayward and differing in who they would seek in return. Boston has clearly not seen a positive return on their investment in Hayward two year ago, and the specter of the $67 million remaining on his contract looms large over their future plans. If they decide he is a negative asset worth sending out one of their 3 first round picks to clear their books of his massive contract, the Cavs would likely be among their first calls.

Boston Celtics 1

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Gordon Hayward

$32,710,000

$34,187,000

Pick 20

$2,149,000

$2,257,000

Celtics 1-10 Pro. 2021 1st

Total Incoming

$ 34,859,000

$36,444,000

Boston Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Jordan Clarkson

$13,437,000

Total Incoming

$ 29,117,000

$0

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 17,307,000

$0

Cavs Salary Change

$ 5,742,000

$ 36,444,000

Boston Salary Change

$(17,552,000)

$ (36,444,000)

Which of the proposed deals appeals most to the Celtics depends almost entirely upon what they believe is going to happen with Kyrie Irving. With Kyrie AND Terry Rozier seemingly on their way out and a remaining roster devoid of dynamic guards and scorers, they could ask for Jordan Clarkson as the salary matching player. Clarkson is someone who is able to play the role of sixth man/ bucket getter off the bench effectively, scoring 16 ppg this year.

While his 3pt shooting plummeted this year, it happened in the context of him often being the only scoring option on a floor lacking both spacing and ball movement, resulting in inefficient pull-ups and late clock heaves. However, last year playing in a well-spaced offense where he was able to play off-ball and shoot off the catch, he shot an extremely efficient 40.7% from three. If the Celtics believe Kyrie is going to walk, they could be looking to institute a retooling of the roster around their young wings, Tatum and Brown. In Brad Steven’s offense Clarkson could once again find an efficient and effective role spacing and driving off of movement rather than isolation.

For the Cavaliers, acquiring Gordon Hayward would signal an immediate shift towards playoff contention. This would likely be a move advocated for primarily by Gilbert (whose influence is a question mark due to his health) rather than Altman, but Gordon theoretically fills exactly what the Cavs most sorely lack on their current roster. Gordon at his peak is an athletic slasher attacking the rim, an effective shooter, and willing playmaker able to bend defenses and create and find open shooters off the drive. He can also be a strong defender capable of switching the pick and roll and making smart, timely rotations. This is the reason he was fielding multiple max contract offers only two years ago.

Unfortunately, his ability to tap into his former talent remains only theoretical at this point. While he showed flashes this year of his old form, for most of his second year in Boston he suffered from low confidence and the pressure of high expectations in Boston. The hope would be that in Cleveland, removed from the pressure and drama of the Irving Celtics, he would be able to rebuild his confidence and act as a mentor and leader for a young Cavs team on the rise. The significant burden of taking on his salary would be eased by the addition of Boston’s second 1st round selection, pick 20.

Boston Celtics 2

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Gordon Hayward

$32,710,000

$34,187,000

Pick 14

$2,878,000

$3,022,000

Celtics 1-10 Pro. 2021 1st

Total Incoming

$ 35,588,000

$37,209,000

Boston Receives

Tristan Thompson

$ 18,539,000

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Total Incoming

$ 34,219,000

$0

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 22,409,000

$0

Cavs Salary Change

$ 1,369,000

$ 37,209,000

Boston Salary Change

$(13,179,000)

$ (37,209,000)

If the Celtics still believe Irving’s talent is worth retaining despite the locker room drama he has brought with him to Boston, they may instead seek to move Hayward for more immediate help which would appeal to Irving and try to settle the chemistry issues. With Boston 22nd in total rebounds in 2018-19, Tristan Thompson as a board swallowing, switchable defender could be an appealing addition to their front court rotation. More importantly, however, Thompson is Kyrie’s first, oldest, and perhaps best friend in the league. Bringing ‘buddy-ball’ to Boston may be the Celtic’s best chance at retaining Irving and keeping their championship window open. For Cleveland the calculus remains the same, though Thompson likely has a higher asking price, upping the cost to the Celtics first 2019 selection, pick #14.

CHARLOTTE HORNETS

Charlotte has been a team in limbo for some time now. Perennially stuck chasing the bottom seeds in the East playoff bracket, Charlotte has a massive decision to make this season regarding All-Star point guard Kemba Walker. While they appear hesitant to offer Walker the super-max contract he is eligible for[9], Charlotte will still be breaking the bank should they look to lock him up long term. If Charlotte wants to make a compelling pitch below the super-max and commit to building a contender around Walker, they will need to dispense of the burdensome contracts they signed in 2016 and add talent to the roster before signing Kemba to a contract that vaults them back over the cap.

Below are two hypothetical ways they accomplish this.

Charlotte Hornets 1

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Nic Batum

$25,565,000

$27,130,000

Pick 12

$3,189,000

$3,349,000

Top 5 Protected 2021 First

Total Incoming

$ 28,754,000

$30,479,000

Charlotte Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

John Henson

$ 9,732,000

Total Incoming

$ 25,412,000

$0

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 13,602,000

$0

Cavs Salary Change

$ 3,342,000

$ 30,479,000

Charlotte Salary Change

$(15,152,000)

$ (30,479,000)

This trade would accomplish two valuable goals for Charlotte: clear significant immediate space to add talent this summer in free agency and shed the burdensome $27 million Batum contract from their books in in 2019-20 and especially 2020-21. Given the return Atlanta received in the market-setting Nets-Hawks trade, this seems about the going rate for a salary dump of this magnitude, with the protections on the 2021 first being the primary variable. Henson is a player who may be able to give the Hornets some minutes and has shown some potential to stretch the floor, but is primarily included here to make the salaries work. The Hornets would use the more than $20 million in cap space this trade creates to add shooting to the roster. Players such as Brook Lopez, Bojan Bogdanovic, Nikola Mirotic, Marcus Morris, Thad Young, Al-Farouq Aminu, maybe even DeMarcus Cousins would be prime targets in order to try and show Kemba Walker that the team is capable of improving and eventually competing in the Eastern Conference.

The Cavs would be able to put Batum into some much needed wing minutes before stretching his contract in 2020-21 or more likely using it as a massive expiring contract to attempt to add additional assets. The Cavs would ideally be looking for a better return on less multi-year money, but given how Cleveland assesses the Hornets future, they may gamble on the 2021 pick landing somewhere in the lottery, or ask for a 2022 in what is expected to be a hyper valuable double-draft.

Charlotte Hornets 2

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Nic Batum

$25,565,000

$27,130,000

Bismack Biyombo

$17,000,000

Miles Bridges

$3,207,000

$4,028,000

Dwane Bacon

$1,378,000

$1,619,000

Pick 12

$3,189,000

$3,349,000

Pick 36

Top 5 Pro. 2021 First

Total Incoming

$ 50,339,000

$36,126,000

Charlotte Receives

Kevin Love

$ 28,900,000

$31,300,000

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Future 2nds

Total Incoming

$ 44,580,000

$31,300,000

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 32,770,000

$31,300,000

Cavs Salary Change

$ 5,759,000

$ 4,826,000

Charlotte Salary Change

$(17,569,000)

$ (4,826,000)

This hypothetical is obviously highly unlikely, but is a very interesting thought experiment into what a Kevin Love trade might look like. Post-trade, Charlotte would have $24 million in space this year. They could feasibly add Love and also go after a player discussed above. After signing their free agents they would then sign Walker to his contract and jump immediately into the tax. A starting 5 of Walker, Bridges, Bodgdanovic/Mirotic/or Aminu, Love, Zeller would theoretically be able to make some noise in the Eastern Conference; though at a considerable cost. Is that team worth paying the tax? That would for Mr. Jordan to decide. Should Charlotte make this deal it would lock up the core duo of Walker and Love for the next 4 years. If Charlotte does in fact seek to keep Walker around long term, they would be hard pressed to find a better avenue to construct a winning roster for the duration of Walker’s contract.

For the Cavaliers this would be a significant haul in exchange for Love, the cap relief of JR’s contract, and taking on two atrocious salaries in Batum and Biyombo. Biyombo could, and likely would, be stretched, spreading his $17,000,000 over the next three years. Batum and his nearly $53 million remaining would unfortunately be stuck in Cleveland. In return, the Cavaliers would add two promising young wing players in Bridges and Bacon, the #12 and #36 picks in this year’s draft as well as a lightly protected 2021 first which would likely convey in the high teens to early 20s. This would signify that the Cavs have faith in Beilein to instill his culture and nurture what would be a VERY young but potentially very talented roster. Consider that the roster’s new core would be comprised of Sexton, Osman, Nance, Bridges, Bacon, Pick #5, Pick #12, Pick #26 and potentially Zizic and Pick #36. Say those picks become Jarrett Culver and Jackson Hayes? Round it out with Thompson, Batum, Clarkson, Knight, Delly, and Henson and that is a lot for Beilein to work with.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Courtney Lee

$12,760,000

Justin Jackson

$3,281,000

$5,030,000

Pick 37

Total Incoming

$ 16,041,000

$5,030,000

Dallas Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Total Incoming

$ 15,680,000

$0

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 3,870,000

$0

Cavs Salary Change

$ 361,000

$ 5,030,000

Dallas Salary Change

$(12,171,000)

$ (5,030,000)

In this hypothetical, the market for JR Smith’s contract is far less tepid (though unlikely given the haul Atlanta just scored in return for taking on Allen Crabbe). In exchange for Smith, The Cavs would take on Courtney Lee’s expiring as well as a promising young wing in Justin Jackson and the 37th pick in this year’s draft. Not much to say here except the Cavaliers desperately need talent on the wing. Hard to believe Dallas wouldn’t fall over themselves to get a deal like this into the NBA office.

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis Grizzlies

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Chandler Parsons

$25,103,000

Pick 2

$7,266,000

$7,629,000

Total Incoming

$ 32,369,000

$7,629,000

Memphis Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Jordan Clarkson

$13,437,000

Pick 5

$5,327,000

$5,594,000

Total Incoming

$ 34,444,000

$5,594,000

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 22,634,000

$5,594,000

Cavs Salary Change

$ (2,075,000)

$ 2,035,000

Memphis Salary Change

$ (9,735,000)

$ (2,035,000)

How much do the Grizzlies value Ja Morant (or RJ Barrett)? How desperate are they to rid themselves of Parson’s contract? They were reportedly shopping their first round pick in exchange for Parsons prior to their unlikely vault up to #2. Are they ready to completely commit to tanking in order to retain their 2020 Draft pick, protected Top 6 protected to the Boston Celtics?

For a team many have passively penciled into taking Morant with the #2 pick, there are many roster and future considerations which could lead to them moving this pick. Add the #5 pick (Darius Garland?), whatever they are able to get in exchange for Conley, and whatever they would get for Clarkson at the deadline, and you’ve got yourself the makings of a solid rebuild.

The Cavs, for their part, would likely jump at the opportunity to take Morant, moving Sexton to an off-ball or bench scoring roll previously held by Clarkson, where he might be better suited. This would be a massive win for Cleveland.

MIAMI HEAT

The Miami Heat may be the most likely trade partners for JR Smith’s contract, for multiple reasons. This is supporting by recent reporting

"Per The Athletic's and Stadium's Shams Charania, the Miami Heat have shown interest in a "salary-designed trade" for Smith that would allow them to get rid of some contracts they want to dump this offseason."[10]

Miami’s cap situation is a wreck. They have several terrible, multi-year contracts on the books they would like to shed in order to duck the luxury tax. As a team with no realistic championship expectations, the Heat’s salary cap situation is dire. Assuming Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic will pick up their player options (they will), Miami will have already have $130 million in salary for next year tied up in only 9 contracts. (Friendly reminder that the projected 2019-20 cap is projected to be $109 million with the tax line at $132 million). Miami will be desperate to shed salary and no one is able to offer more relief than the Cavaliers.

Accordingly, I have constructed 3 different levels of offers, though the players who could be involved are very flexible given the number of bad contracts Miami and Cleveland have to choose from.

Miami Heat 1

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Ryan Anderson

$15,600,000

Pick 13

$3,030,000

$3,181,000

Miami 2022 2nd Rd Pick

Total Incoming

$ 18,630,000

$3,181,000

Miami Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Pick 26

$1,694,000

$1,779,000

Total Incoming

$ 17,374,000

$1,779,000

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 5,564,000

$1,779,000

Cavs Salary Change

$ 1,256,000

$ 1,402,000

Miami Salary Change

$(13,066,000)

$ (1,402,000)

The first trade option involves the Cavs moving up from pick 26 into the lottery at pick 13 in return for taking on Ryan Anderson’s $15 million guarantee and then waiving him before July 10.

For Miami this makes a lot of sense. This would save the Heat just over $13 million towards this year’s cap and open the ability for them to use the entire mid-level exception, which they will need to do in order to fill out their roster for next year. In addition, they retain a first round pick in this year’s draft, giving them a shot at grabbing a piece to begin molding for the next iteration of the Heat once they have rid themselves of the poor contract choices they have made since 2016.

For the Cavs this is a solid, if unspectacular use of Smith’s contract. They should of course attempt to leverage more resources from the Heat, but this seems like the bare minimum that should be on the table. Ryan’s contract become guaranteed for its full $21 million value if not waived before July 10. Therefore, the Cavs would acquire and then release him, either eating the entire $15.6 million or stretching it over the next three years.

Miami Heat 2

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

James Johnson

$15,439,000

$16,047,000

Pick 13

$3,030,000

$3,181,000

Total Incoming

$ 18,469,000

$19,228,000

Miami Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Total Incoming

$ 15,680,000

$0

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 3,870,000

$0

Cavs Salary Change

$ 2,789,000

$ 19,228,000

Miami Salary Change

$(14,599,000)

$ (19,228,000)

This second trade is an expensive but vital straight salary dump for the Heat. They save more than 14 million dollars in 2019-20 alone, as well as another $19 million in 2020-21. Entering his age 33 season and given the Cavs already crowded frontcourt, Johnson is unlikely to offer anything more than spot minutes and veteran leadership for the Cavaliers young players. His expiring contract could be moveable once again next offseason if the Cavaliers are still willing to take on bad contracts to accumulate assets.

Other candidates for a salary dump trade of this type would be Kelly Olynyk ($11,668,000; $12,198,000) and Dion Waiters ($12,100,000; $12,650,000) [LOL]. These players have both lower salaries and higher on-court value and accordingly I see them as less-likely to be included as the Heat will struggle just to fill out their roster with NBA level talent next year. These contracts would obviously be preferable for the Cavs. The thought of Dion returning to Cleveland is… something!

Miami Heat 3

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

Hassan Whiteside

$ 27,093,000

James Johnson

$ 15,439,000

$16,047,000

Justice Winslow

$ 13,000,000

$13,000,000

$ 13,000,000

Pick 13

$ 3,030,000

$3,181,000

$ 3,333,000

Total Incoming

$ 58,562,000

$32,228,000

$ 16,333,000

After Stretching Whiteside

$ 40,500,000

Miami Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Tristan Thompson

$ 18,539,000

Jordan Clarkson

$ 13,437,000

Ante Zizic

$ 2,282,000

Total Incoming

$ 47,656,000

$0

$ -

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 35,846,000

$0

$ -

Cavs Salary Change

$ 10,906,000

$ 32,228,000

$ 16,333,000

Post Stretching Whiteside

$ (7,156,000)

$ 41,259,000

$ 25,364,000

Miami Salary Change

$(22,716,000)

$ (32,228,000)

$ (16,333,000)

The final level of Cavaliers trade: the radical realignment. This trade would be a massive shift and would represent fundamental changes in each team’s short and long-term outlooks. For this reason I also see at as the least likely.

For Miami, this would be a complete restructuring of their roster with an eye towards acquiring cap space to attract big names in the summer of 2020. After this trade, if the Heat manage to not add any long-term salary for next year, they would have almost $67 million in cap room to chase free agents just next year. This would rapidly accelerate the window in which Miami can attempt to compete again. The cost, Justice Winslow and the number 13 pick is high, but Pat Riley is not a young man and surely does not want to wade through two more years of mediocrity without any hope of competing in the East.

Giving up Winslow in particular hurts, but his $13 million salary is not insignificant and if he is anywhere near his ceiling as a player, the Heat know first-hard that competent to good players are not enough to win at the level Pat Riley expects of his teams. They need start power as soon as they can get it, and they are unlikely to get it from Winslow or the #13 pick in a shallow draft. Moreover, dumping Whiteside from the locker room and both Whiteside and Johnson from the cap sheet would be a major success for a Heat team trying to establish a post-Wade identity.

For Cleveland, this would also rapidly accelerate the Cavaliers timeline. First and most importantly, however, Hassan Whiteside should never enter a Cavaliers locker room. His presence has been a drain on Miami and his inability to produce up to the level of his contract is a burden the Cavaliers should not endure. In this scenario the Cavaliers would release and stretch his remaining contract, taking a dead-money hit of just over $9 million for the next three years.

Second, this trade hinges almost entirely on how the Cavaliers value Winston. I personally view him as a competent defender, shooter, and secondary creator who is still showing growth and can continue to improve as a player. I also see him as playing right about up the value of his contract, with a solid chance to outperform it over the next three years. The Cavs would, importantly, have a team option on that third year. He would be an excellent fit both as a second guard alongside Sexton and initiating offense on second units. Adding Winslow, a high floor wing such as Hunter or Culver with the number 5 pick, and a high-risk high-reward pick at number 13 such as Bol Bol, Jackson Hayes, Nassir Little, or Kevin Porter Jr. would significantly jumpstart the Cavaliers rebuild.

This deal would also be financially beneficial should the Cavs, understandably, want to cut salary this year. Stretching Whiteside would actually save the Cavaliers almost more than $7 million against the cap in 2019-20, putting them comfortable below the tax and potentially adding the ability to take on additional salary-for-assets at the trade deadline. While the salary commitment for 2020-21 is substantial, the Cavs books are largely clear, and will be comprised of many low-cost rookie scale contracts. This would be a solid investment and one, I believe, would be well-worth Kobi Altman investigating.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Jeff Teague

$19,000,000

Gorgui Dieng

$16,229,000

$17,288,000

Pick 11

$3,357,000

$3,525,000

Top 5 Pro. 2021 First

Total Incoming

$ 38,586,000

$20,813,000

Minnesota Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Tristan Thompson

$ 18,539,000

Total Incoming

$ 34,219,000

$0

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 22,409,000

$0

Cavs Salary Change

$ 4,367,000

$ 20,813,000

Minnesota Salary Change

$(16,177,000)

$ (20,813,000)

Minnesota wants to compete ASAP, and to do so they are going to need to add immediate talent. The #11 pick in a weak draft is not likely to accomplish that goal. Minnesota could opt to use its draft assets to offload some particularly bad contracts and acquire some immediate help. In exchange for offloading Teague and two years of Dieng, Minnesota would fork over its first round picks in 2019 and 2021 in order to acquire $16 million in 2019 cap space and a younger Taj Gibson replacement/frontcourt partner for KAT. They should use that cap space to find guard help and then resign Derrick Rose after a strong year in which he regained significant value as a player.

The Cavaliers seem to value Thompson as a locker room presence and on court leader, but in an already crowded frontcourt without enough minutes to go around, it is much easier to justify a smaller role for Dieng than a high profile member of the 2016 championship squad. His recent tabloid infamy has also added drama to a young team which needs nothing of the sort. Teague would likely be stretched, meaning a manageable $6.3 million cap hit over the next three years. Dieng is also a sizeable expiring contract in 2020 which could be used to acquire additional future assets. This seems like it would be a fine deal for both sides.

I am not even going to entertain the idea of an Andrew Wiggins Trade.

Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Timofey Mozgov

$16,720,000

Pick 16

$2,598,000

$2,728,000

Future 2nd rd. pick

Total Incoming

$ 19,318,000

$2,728,000

Orlando Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Total Incoming

$ 15,680,000

$0

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 3,870,000

$0

Cavs Salary Change

$ 3,638,000

$ 2,728,000

Orlando Salary Change

$(15,448,000)

$ (2,728,000)

Having tasted the postseason for what seems like the first time this century, could the Orlando Magic be looking to make a big splash in free agency? If they are willing to part with the 16 pick, the Magic could offload Tomofey Mozgov’s bloated contract, opening up almost 40 million in cap space. This would be more than enough to sign a desperately needed, top-notch point guard if they believe they can land someone like Kyrie Irving (LOL no) Kemba Walker (maybe) or DeAngelo Russell (very possible!). They could then resign Vucevic and hope continued progression from their young players helps them make a huge jump in the potentially wide-open Eastern Conference. It is hard to believe Aaron Gordon is still only 23 and Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, and Mo Bamba are each just 21.

Not much to say for the Cavs that hasn’t been said already other than that, as fun as it would be to have Mozgov reunite with Delly from the championship team, Mozgov would likely get stretched in order to stay below the luxury tax. The Cavs would hope to get a better asset than the #16 pick for Smith’s contract, but they could do a lot worse.

Washington Wizards

Washington Wizards

Cavs Receive

2019-20

2020-21

Ian Mahinmi

$15,450,000

Pick 9

$3,720,000

$3,906,000

Total Incoming

$ 19,170,000

$3,906,000

Washington Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Pick 26

$1,694,000

$1,779,000

Total Incoming

$ 17,374,000

$1,779,000

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 5,564,000

$1,779,000

Cavs Salary Change

$ 1,796,000

$ 2,127,000

Washington Salary Change

$(13,606,000)

$ (2,127,000)

Another straight salary dump for the beleaguered Washington Wizards. The Cavs would absolutely try to take advantage of the wizards GM situation to just get the #9 pick, but whoever is calling the shots in Washington would be wise to try and make it a swap with the #26. Still, moving up 15 spots into the top 10 in the draft is not generally a cheap proposition. Mahinmi would likely be stretched.

Finally, a three-teamer!

Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder

Cavs Receive

John Leuer

$ 9,508,000

Pick 15

$ 2,734,000

$ 2,871,000

Future OKC 2nd

Total Outgoing

$ 15,680,000

$ 2,166,000

Total Incoming

$ 12,242,000

$ 2,871,000

Detroit Receives

Andre Roberson

$ 10,741,000

Pick 21

$ 2,063,000

$ 2,166,000

Total Outgoing

$ 12,242,000

$ 2,871,000

Total Incoming

$ 12,804,000

$ 2,166,000

Oklahoma City Receives

JR Smith

$ 15,680,000

Total Outgoing

$ 12,804,000

$ -

Total Incoming

$ 15,680,000

$ -

After Waiving JR Smith

$ 3,870,000

$ -

Cavs Salary Change

$ (3,438,000)

$ 705,000

Detroit Salary Change

$ 562,000

$ (705,000)

OKC Salary Change

$ (8,934,000)

$ -

Recent report indicate that Oklahoma City is interested in shopping the 21st pick in this year’s draft, with a primary motivator being to reduce team salary[11]. Detroit also needs to make changes as their team is nearly bereft of talent outside of their frontcourt.

Consider the following:

Detroit is over the cap and will only have the mid-level exception to be able to add to their roster. With this trade, Detroit trades back only 6 spots in the draft in exchange for turning John Leuer’s dead money contract into a player who, when healthy, is one of the league’s premier perimeter defenders.

OKC is able to dump Roberson’s contract for the 21st pick to save almost $9 million in salary, which, because they are deep into the luxury tax already, will save them tens of millions in total expenditure.

Finally, the Cavaliers turn JR Smith’s contract into the #15 pick without having to take on long term salary, AND actually save $3.5 million against the cap this year, allowing them to operate below the tax. Should they buy out or stretch Leuer, they would be able to generate even more room.

In my humble opinion, this trade is a win-win-win. Who says no?

------

After all that, which trade do you like best? Which trades are most likely? Which trades are totally unlikely?

I've clearly got too much time on my hands. June 20th can't get here soon enough.



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