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Cleveland Cavaliers 2020 NBA Draft Lottery odds

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It’s (finally) lottery week.

2019 NBA Draft Lottery Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images

This week, after a long coronavirus-induced delay, the NBA Draft Lottery is happening. When the lottery balls are drawn, the Cavs and the other teams not in the playoffs will have clarity in regards to the 2020 NBA Draft, which is scheduled for later this fall. Where the Cavs end up will offer insight into prospects like Anthony Edwards or LaMelo Ball are on the board or if prospects like Isaac Okoro and Devin Vassell are more Cleveland’s speed.

Per Tankathon, here are the Cavs’ odds of landing each pick. They can fall no lower than sixth overall:

  • No. 1 overall: 14%
  • No. 2 overall: 13.4%
  • No. 3 overall: 12.7%
  • No. 4 overall: 12%
  • No. 5 overall: 27.8%
  • No. 6 overall: 20%

As the numbers show, the most likely outcome is the Cavs picking fifth or sixth. That’s due to the lottery change made. Here’s how it looks picking top-three vs. not.

  • No. 1 - No. 3: 40.1%
  • No. 4 - No. 6: 59.8%

In short: It is more likely than not for the Cavs to pick outside of the top-three in the 2020 NBA Draft. Of course, the Cavs have had insanely good lottery luck before in 2011, 2013 and 2014. Maybe 2020 will be more of the same.